Crypto springboards higher but the upside is capped, for now

For BTC, we think the new overhead resistance near $44,000 presents a near-term threat.  

For SOL, the technical picture played out precisely as predicted, with price cleanly breaking a downtrend line to reclaim an uptrend. But like Bitcoin, Solana faces further upside resistance. 

RUNE bounced from support as expected, yet the upside appears limited by resistance around $4.78.

Finally, LINK saw a bounce from horizontal support, but it is facing a test of $15.33 resistance - failing here could see LINK revisit lower support zones.

The overall view remains cautious in the near term, but we know that the lower prices will present more attractive buying opportunities for the long term.

Let’s dive in. 

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

BTC update

BTC's Open Interest is increasing but not near levels of frothiness yet, and it is probably not likely to get to such levels anytime soon.

The Funding Rate is at a normal level of 0.01%, which is good because it suggests that positioning is evenly balanced. Neither side is overweight and, therefore, vulnerable to a squeeze.

Technical analysis

• BTC has had a really nice breakout from the red downtrend line, with price having bounced from the Bear Flag Target 2 following the bear flag breakdown.
• Price is now facing the battle where it is pressing into the horizontal resistance of $43,900, just above the current price.
• We also have an orange box just above $44,000. The orange boxes usually act as a resistance area.
• If price rejects/breaks down, we would be looking at the $40,900 horizontal level to act as a major support for price.

Cryptonary's take

The market is now in the relief bounce we expected and predicted in our last market direction analysis.

Now, price has moved up to $43,900 and is just shy of the orange box; this would be the time to become cautious again in the short term. 

A breakout of the $44k and the orange box would be very bullish. A breakdown would likely see us retest $40,900 at least, and maybe even the lows at $38,600. 

Long-term, big dips are for buying. If we do see sub $38k (we think this is on the cards), we may get into that $35k or $36k area. 

If we do get there, we'd consider that a phenomenal opportunity to accumulate for the long run.

---

SOL update

The mechanics for SOL have spiced up slightly. OI is now close to highs last seen in the euphoric period, just shy of the new year. However, Funding is still flat. So, even though there's a lot of leverage build-up again, it's not overly weighted in one direction.

Technical analysis

• As we called in the last SOL update, price has broken out of the downtrend line and is now headed to the orange box. That was a clean and precise prediction – like clockwork.
• What's also impressive is the reclaim of the uptrend line, having initially found it as a resistance area.
• Price is now finding new resistance in the orange box area and seems to be rejecting from there as we speak. This is a really key area for price. If price can overcome the orange box, this would be very bullish and likely send price to $117, at the minimum.
• The main horizontal support to the downside is $79, although $94 is likely to be a local level of support.

Cryptonary's take

SOL's price is currently at a real key level. This test of the orange box will likely dictate the next series of price action. 

We still expect to see a wider pullback over the coming months, but the $JUP airdrop tomorrow will likely help stimulate the SOL ecosystem. 

Therefore, we are happy to hold SOL for now, even though we don't think there’s a lot more upside in the short term (of course, we can be wrong on this). So, for us, the play is to continue holding spot SOL and then put USDT to work on major breakdowns (assuming they come). 

We are still eyeing SOL at sub $79 and the yellow box between $59 and $65. We understand many of you will not like this, but that's what the analysis tells us.

---

RUNE update

RUNE is clean from a mechanics perspective. OI is nowhere near where it was when it got overheated before Christmas, while Funding is also flat. RUNE is, therefore, in a good place, and there's little chance of flush-outs caused by leverage.

Technical analysis

• From a slightly zoomed-out view, RUNE has had a nice bounce from the yellow box into which it pulled back a few weeks ago. It has perfect fill and a nice bounce so far.
• Price got an upside with the breakout of the local downtrend line.
• Price has now moved into the horizontal resistance of $4.78 and has initially rejected from that level.
• If price can get above $4.78 and break out of the main downtrend line, this would be very bullish for considerably more upside. However, there are local resistances at $5.31 and $5.81.

Cryptonary's take

So far, we've seen a nice local breakout in RUNE. However, price seems to be struggling for a more considerable upside.

 Price is currently at a territory that we think is hard to call here. However, even if we go slightly higher in the short term, we don't see RUNE north of $5.30. 

Over the coming months, we also see a retest of the yellow box and a break below. If we are right with this, that's when and where we'll be buyers – in the sub-yellow box.

---

LINK update

LINK has clean mechanics. Funding is flat, while OI is still relatively low, particularly compared to what it has been over prior months.

Technical analysis

It has had a nice bounce from the main horizontal support at $13.36, but now price is moving into the horizontal resistance area of $15.33.

• While price is out of the local uptrend, LINK may struggle to overcome the horizontal resistance and get back into the uptrend.
• $13.36 to $13.88 is still the main zone of support to the downside for price. If price breaks below this level, the yellow box will likely be filled.

Cryptonary's take

We are positioned in LINK and like it for the long term.

However, in terms of building a bigger position, we are not looking to add to our size in the current price range.

We will only add if we break below $13.36, and our target zone to add will be the yellow box between $11.06 and $11.68.