Market Direction

Diversification plays: RUNE, LINK, AVAX, PYTH, NOS, and OP

Updated: Jul 25, 2024

Published: Apr 24, 2024

Today’s market direction focuses more on the altcoins we haven’t covered for a while.

Price action seems positive, but many of the charts suggest there may still be another leg of downside on the near-term horizon.

However, we could potentially use this as an opportunity to diversify slightly and pick up small bags in some good ALTS, assuming we get the attractive price points we have identified.

Let's gooooo!!!

TLDR

RUNE is showing a bullish divergence but faces resistance around $6.08; despite the potential upside, we maintain a cautious stance on RUNE.
LINK bounced from a buy zone between $13 and $14, and a retest of $17 is possible if the broader market holds up; we reaffirm that LINK is a good long-term hold.
AVAX bounced from a buy zone between $30 and $34 but faces resistance around $39.60; a potential retest of the buy zone may present an opportunity.
While PYTH is downtrending, we identify the $0.50 to $0.55 range as a good buying opportunity for this Solana ecosystem play.
NOS (Solana ecosystem) and OP (an Ethereum beta play) will be attractive long-term holdings at lower price levels.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

RUNE

RUNE has managed to find support at the horizontal support of $4.78, having failed and broken below at the prior horizontal support of $7.05.
RUNE has entered a bullish divergence just above oversold territory on the Daily timeframe, which has likely enabled and fuelled this current bounce.
Price is now pushing into the overhead horizontal resistance of $6.08, which may be a short-term sticking point for price.
If price can get above $6.08 and use that horizontal level as new support, then this would set RUNE up to attempt a test and then break out of the red downtrend line. If this happens, the short-term target would be $7.40.

Cryptonary's take

RUNE does not have huge amounts of liquidity and volume, which is likely why it is vulnerable to really sharp moves to the upside or downside. If RUNE can clear $6.08 and then break out of the red downtrend line, then we can see further upside for RUNE here.

However, these are relatively significant short-term resistances, so price may struggle to break out. We remain cautious on RUNE and wouldn't look to add to Spot bags here. I (Tom) personally do not own RUNE.

LINK

LINK initially bounced from its local Yellow Buy Box, but without being able to break out from its local high of $22, price retested the box several times before breaking down from that area.
Price then broke down to the macro Yellow Buy Box between $13.10 and $14.10.
This macro Yellow Buy Box also converges with the horizontal support of $13.36.
Price was able to bounce from this area after forming a bullish divergence from oversold territory on the Daily timeframe.
Price has now retested the horizontal level of $15.33. Above this level (and price currently looks like it's winning the battle at this price point), then price can move up to and retest $17.

Cryptonary's take

If the general market holds up, this will likely help LINK push on and retest the $17 area. However, if there is an overall market weakness, then LINK likely breaks down from the horizontal level of $15.33 and retests $14.10.

Ultimately, we like LINK as a project, and it can perform relatively well, although it may not see strong outperformance. Generally, $13-$14 is a good entry zone for the long run. Therefore, we'd look to hold Spot positions here and even add to our Spot bags if price revisits $13-$14.

AVAX

Overall, AVAX looks like a relatively simple play. However, it failed at two local Yellow Buy Boxes in the $41 to $46 range. There is a macro Yellow Buy Box that the price has now bounced from, but I (Tom) didn’t even put it in as I just didn’t think the price would reach it.
Price has now bounced from the macro Yellow Buy Box between $30.30 and $34.00, having put in a bullish divergence in oversold territory on the Daily timeframe.
Price is now butting into the horizontal resistance of $39.60. This may be a short-term resistance for price.
If price can break above $39.60, then this would likely open the door for a move to $45 in the short term.
If price sees a heavier rejection at $39.60, then the macro Yellow Buy Box between $30.30 and $34.00 may be retested again.

Cryptonary's take

We're beginning to see a similar structure in the charts, which is positive but also opens the door to lower retests if the market (BTC) does turn down.

My feeling is that AVAX can turn down here in the short term. A reclaim above $39.60 will likely be big for price going higher. However, I see it as relatively strong resistance currently, especially in a market with weaker volumes over the last week or so. If you're looking for diversification, then AVAX might be a play you look to get a small amount of exposure to if there is a retest of the $30 to $35 zone.

PYTH

It’s not the greatest-looking chart from a TA perspective, particularly considering the downtrending and almost minimal volumes.
Price has broken out of a local downtrend (red) line; however, the current price formation is a bear flag. This bear flag would bias the price to break down and potentially retest $0.52. If we got this, we'd see it as a good buying opportunity for PYTH.
Unlike some other plays/coins, PYTH didn't put in a bullish divergence, but it has managed to get a bounce from the local lows.
PYTH may have found a short-term horizontal resistance at $0.70. Unless there is a bullish thrust higher, we expect price to go lower and break down from the bear flag here.
The major breakout would be as price moves closer to the main downtrend line and breaks out of that, likely shoving price significantly higher. However, it may take another 2-3 weeks for that to happen.

Cryptonary's take

We like PYTH as a play for the upcoming bull cycle as it's a larger SOL ecosystem play. If PYTH does retest the $0.50 to $0.55 area, we will look to accumulate more or begin adding a position. The view would be to hold for the long term (next 6-15/18 months).

NOSANA

There are a few key horizontal areas for NOS, the $4.95 and the $4.00 horizontal levels.
Price is currently breaking down (or looking like it is) from a bear flag below the $4.00 horizontal level, which isn’t ideal. It suggests further downside, potentially as low as $3.00 to $3.50.
The $2.90 to $3.30 area would be an attractive price point where we'd have to consider adding to our bags if price revisits this price zone.
The horizontal level of $3.40 should be a support for price.
One thing that worries us is the recent lack of volume. We need volume to come back in to see bullish momentum for price. The lower prices may be a good opportunity to get the entries.

Cryptonary's take

NOSANA is a strong SOL ecosystem play that we like for this upcoming crypto bull market. If the opportunity presents itself, we will look to take advantage of lower prices (between $2.90 and $3.30/$3.40). It’s great to have exposure to these kinds of plays, but it’s worth keeping them as low as possible in terms of percentage allocation of your total pot/capital. NOSANA is a play we like for the long term, upcoming 6 to 15 or 18 months.

OP

OP, on the other hand, has a relatively clean chart. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s bullish; it just means that price sticks to clear and clean levels.
Price has broken down below both major uptrend lines (yellow lines) and has finally found support at the horizontal support of $2.07.
Price has bounced slightly despite not putting in a bullish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Price is also forming a bear flag, which has a bias to break down. The target is at least $3.07.
Volumes have been significantly lower in the prior few weeks than before April, which is usually not a positive sign.

Cryptonary's take

We see OP as a beta play for ETH. We expect ETH to perform relatively well in the upcoming 12 months, but we expect some underperformance. OP may, therefore, be the better play, but we'd still stick to having a small allocation simply because our bias is on SOL and the SOL ecosystem rather than ETH and ETH beta plays.

OP may provide a more attractive entry point in the upcoming weeks, potentially around the $2.00 to $2.10 zone. This is where we'd consider adding or picking up a small allocation to OP with a view to holding it for the long term.