Market Direction

DOGE eyes rejection at $0.18

Published: Mar 12, 2025

DOGE may see short-term relief bounces, but bearish momentum remains strong. With key resistance at $0.18-$0.20, traders anticipate rejection and further downside in weak liquidity conditions.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Market context

The softer CPI print has the potential to trigger a relief bounce, but meme coins remain among the weakest risk assets. They will likely participate in the bounce but ultimately roll over.
DOGE is showing early signs of bottoming, but this does not signal a full reversal. Instead, we anticipate a rally into resistance before further downside continuation.
The broader risk-off sentiment remains intact, meaning any bounces are selling opportunities.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

DOGE has retraced ~70% from cycle highs, printing a new low on March 11.
RSI is forming a wedge pattern, signalling a potential short-term bounce but still in a downtrend.
Immediate short-term resistance sits at $0.18 - $0.20-this is the most likely level for rejection.
A stronger relief rally could extend to $0.24, but momentum is expected to fade before then.
The downside target remains $0.10 - $0.12, aligning with RSI potentially entering oversold territory.

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Next Support: $0.1200
Next Resistance: $0.1800
Direction: bullish
Upside Target: $0.1200
Downside Target: $0.200

Trade plan: short setup on resistance

Short entry: If the price moves into $0.18 - $0.20, we will short aggressively, which stops at $0.22 and targets at $0.14, then $0.10 - $0.12.
Secondary short: If the price extends to $0.24, this strengthens conviction for an even stronger short setup.
If $0.14 breaks down, we step back and wait for confirmation before adding further shorts.

Cryptonary's take

DOGE is very similar to PEPE and will likely bounce in the short term, but this is a fading opportunity, not a reversal. The CPI print could create a temporary relief move, but again, liquidity conditions remain weak, meaning DOGE is unlikely to sustain gains. We expect rejection at $0.18 - $0.20, providing a clean, short setup for the next leg down.