Election outcome to drive BTC's next move

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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• BTC's Open Interest remains high, although it has pulled back slightly in the last few days as Trump's odds have come in and "Trump trade" assets have pulled back.
• BTC's Funding Rate remains positive, around the upper end, but still a healthy area of 0.01%.

BTC's open interest:

Technical analysis

• BTC was rejected from the all-time highs at $73,600 and has since pulled back to the prior horizontal resistance at $68,900.
• To the upside, $73,600 (all-time high) is now the major resistance and a clean break out above likely ignites the "euphoria" stage of the bull run.
• On the downside, the current level of $68,000 to $68,900 should act as support going into the election.
• Beneath $68,000, $66,000, and then $63,400 are the key horizontal levels.
• Since poking into the all-time highs, the RSI has pulled back from overbought levels, and it's now in a more middle and neutral territory at 54.

• Next Support: $68,000
• Next Resistance: $73,500
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $73,500
• Downside Target: $66,000

Cryptonary's take

It seems the obvious explanation for this pullback is that price moved into all-time highs on strong odds of a Trump win. However, as those odds have come in slightly, there has been profit-taking on "Trump trade" assets which has then led to a pullback. It was also unlikely that risk appetite was going to increase substantially pre-election.

Most smart money waits for an outcome, regardless of what the outcome is, to put capital into work. If Trump wins, it's very likely we'll see BTC trade north of $75k by the end of this week. If Harris wins, it's possible that BTC will sell off and potentially trade between $60k and $63k. However, we would see this as a buying opportunity. We're bullish mid and long-term, regardless of who the winner is.