Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
- ETH's Open Interest (by the number of coins) remains at highs. This is due to the coin's value going down substantially (reflected in higher OI by the number of ETH), but there is also still the appetite for funds to be taking advantage of the carry trade (Long Spot, Short Futures, and profit the Funding Rate).
- However, ETH's Funding Rate has recently flipped to being negative, as we can see below, suggesting there is more of an appetite amongst traders to be Short, but we might look to take the other side of this.
Technical analysis
- ETH has been in an aggressive downtrend now for 4 months, having reached extreme oversold levels, not seen since August 2024, and August 2023.
- Price is currently battling at the horizontal level of $1,530, whilst price is also squeezing into the local downtrend.
- The key level for price to reclaim to the upside is the $1,745 horizontal level. If this happens and the price can break out of the downtrend line, then $2,000 (psychological level) is the target.
- On Tuesday, the RSI went into extreme oversold levels. It has since bounced, and it's now pushing up against its downtrend line, whilst it's also got above its moving average.
- In terms of accumulation levels for ETH, we see ETH as being close to a bottom. We'd be accumulating for the long-term (maybe smaller sizing against HYPE SOL etc), between $1,230 and $1,550.
- Next Support: $1,230
- Next Resistance: $1,745
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $2,160
- Downside Target: $1,230
Cryptonary's take
As we said, ETH has been in an aggressive downtrend for 4 months now, and it's down 65% from its highs. With us potentially beginning to turn on the macro front, it might be wise to begin turning from a bearish to a more bullish bias and to be looking to pick up longer-term Spot bags. For that, we'll be eyeing the range between $1,230 and $1,550.In the short term, we think ETH might be good to attempt a breakout of its downtrend line here. However, the critical testing area will be $1,745, if ETH can reclaim that horizontal level, and then breakout of the downtrend line, $2,160 is the target.
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