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Market Direction

ETH breaks out, but Longs are at risk

Updated: Jul 25, 2024
Published: Dec 8, 2023
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As we predicted yesterday, ETH broke out from the pennant, reaching the $2,340 horizontal resistance.

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OI has increased to new highs whilst Funding is at 0.024% - Longs are overweight and may be vulnerable to a flushing out.

TLDR

  • ETH broke out from a pennant pattern, reaching the $2,340 horizontal resistance as predicted.
  • Open Interest (OI) has surged to new highs, and Funding is at 0.024%, suggesting that long positions are overweight and may be susceptible to a flush out.
  • ETH reclaimed its main uptrend and battles to stay above $2,340, which is now a potential support. RSI is overbought, and a breakdown could find support at $2,120.
  • ETH's Open Interest hits new local highs at $8.47b, and the OI-Weighted Funding Rate is at 0.023%, indicating a market bias towards Long positions.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
ETH 12hr 

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Technical analysis

  • ETH formed a pennant pattern yesterday and broke to the upside, testing the $2,340 horizontal resistance as expected. 
  • ETH has also reclaimed its main uptrend, which is bullish for price again. 
  • Price is now battling to stay above the horizontal resistance of $2,340 (now potentially flipped into new support) and the uptrend line. 
  • If ETH sees a more meaningful breakdown, we expect the $2,120 area to hold as new support.
  • The RSI is now in overbought territory on all major timeframes. 
  • We would look to DCA into ETH if there is a retest of $2,120. 

Market mechanics

  • ETH’s Open Interest has popped back to new local highs of $8.47b.
  • The OI-Weighted Funding Rate has also increased to 0.023%, indicating a bias in the market to be Long, with Longs willing to pay a relatively sizeable premium to Shorts to be Long. 

Cryptonary’s take

We expected ETH to move up into a new range of $2,340 to $2,640, which we believe we’re now seeing. However, in the short term, ETH will need to hold above $2,340 to establish this area as new support to continue higher. However, Funding is quite positive and indicates that Longs are somewhat vulnerable to a flush.

We continue to hold our ETH positions, and we’re looking to DCA further into ETH if there is a move down to $2,120. 



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