Market Direction

ETH risks drop toward $1,530

Published: Mar 14, 2025

Ethereum’s price action is at a crossroads, with mixed signals keeping traders on edge. A bearish pennant looms, yet bullish divergences suggest a bounce. Will ETH reclaim resistance or slide lower? Let’s dive into the latest analysis.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

ETH:

ETH's Open Interest (by number of coins) still remains very high. Since the early February flush out, ETH's OI has climbed back close to its all-time highs, now just 5% down from its highs. This shows that there is still strong demand for the carry trade in ETH (Long Spot, Short Futures, profit from the Funding Rate).
ETH's Funding Rate is just about positive, and it has fluctuated between slightly positive and negative. This indicates that there's no clear bias or confidence among traders.

ETH's Open Interest:

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Technical analysis

A really ugly chart that has been essentially down only now for some time.
We commented at the beginning of the week that ETH had just broken below the $2,160 horizontal support level, and it was butting up into it, essentially as new resistance. It wasn't reclaimed, and ETH dropped drastically lower.
Price then bounced perfectly off of the $1,745 horizontal support and has since formed a pennant pattern.
ETH is now forming a bearish pennant which has a bias to break lower. The target of this would be a move back down to $1,745.
Interestingly, ETH's RSI has put in two bullish divergences now (lower low in price, higher low on the oscillator). This may help the price to bounce.
If ETH can bounce (our confidence is low), then $2,160 would be the likely top-level target. We wouldn't expect the price to breach above this level in the near term.
To the downside, if $1,745 is lost, then $1,530 is the next horizontal support.

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Next Support: $1,745
Next Resistance: $2,160
Direction: Neutral/Bullish
Upside Target: $2,160
Downside Target: $1,530

Cryptonary's take

Despite ETH forming a bearish pennant, and if this were to break down, we think the price can retest $1,745 and bounce again from that level. However, our thinking is that ETH can potentially bounce here in the short term and potentially find a local resistance of $2,160.

We're not sure we'd bet on this, because essentially it would be trading against the trend, but we can also appreciate that this is likely due a relief rally in the short-term.