Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
ETH:
- ETH's Open Interest (by number of coins) still remains very high. Since the early February flush out, ETH's OI has climbed back close to its all-time highs, now just 5% down from its highs. This shows that there is still strong demand for the carry trade in ETH (Long Spot, Short Futures, profit from the Funding Rate).
- ETH's Funding Rate is just about positive, and it has fluctuated between slightly positive and negative. This indicates that there's no clear bias or confidence among traders.
Technical analysis
- A really ugly chart that has been essentially down only now for some time.
- We commented at the beginning of the week that ETH had just broken below the $2,160 horizontal support level, and it was butting up into it, essentially as new resistance. It wasn't reclaimed, and ETH dropped drastically lower.
- Price then bounced perfectly off of the $1,745 horizontal support and has since formed a pennant pattern.
- ETH is now forming a bearish pennant which has a bias to break lower. The target of this would be a move back down to $1,745.
- Interestingly, ETH's RSI has put in two bullish divergences now (lower low in price, higher low on the oscillator). This may help the price to bounce.
- If ETH can bounce (our confidence is low), then $2,160 would be the likely top-level target. We wouldn't expect the price to breach above this level in the near term.
- To the downside, if $1,745 is lost, then $1,530 is the next horizontal support.
- Next Support: $1,745
- Next Resistance: $2,160
- Direction: Neutral/Bullish
- Upside Target: $2,160
- Downside Target: $1,530
Cryptonary's take
Despite ETH forming a bearish pennant, and if this were to break down, we think the price can retest $1,745 and bounce again from that level. However, our thinking is that ETH can potentially bounce here in the short term and potentially find a local resistance of $2,160.We're not sure we'd bet on this, because essentially it would be trading against the trend, but we can also appreciate that this is likely due a relief rally in the short-term.
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