Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
- ETH's Open Interest remains close to all-time highs (by number of coins), whilst the Funding Rate remains slightly positive. Again, there isn't much signal in this currently other than the fact that the carry trade is still being had, whilst there isn't a huge appetite amongst leverage traders to be taking sizeable trades.
Technical analysis
- ETH rejected at $2,100 and price pulled back to the horizontal support of $1,745, as we expected it might.
- Price is now trying to bounce from this $1,745 horizontal support level. The RSI has also put in back-to-back bullish divergences (lower lows in price, with higher lows on the oscillator). This could help fuel a move higher.
- If the $1,745 horizontal support is broken to the downside, then the next major horizontal support is at $1,530. If $1,745 is broken, then expect $1,530 swiftly, although we do think $1,745 can hold in the short-term.
- To the upside, the horizontal resistances are $2,100 and $,2160, with the most significant at $2,420, although, to be frank, we don't expect this to be retested anytime soon.
- Next Support: $1,745
- Next Resistance: $2,100
- Direction: Neutral
- Upside Target: $2,100
- Downside Target: $1,530
Cryptonary's take
Despite the general picture for risk assets not being very positive currently, ETH is squeezing into a local downtrend line, having put in two back-to-back bullish divergences. If there is a general breakout in the market, then ETH does look like one of the plays that could get a good breakout.The issue with ETH recently has been its underperformance. So, even though this chart might look good for a breakout (if we're wrong on the macro and the market can break out) then ETH might rally but still underperform.
Whilst the structure looks constructive, we're not looking to chase strength in the current macro backdrop. We'd be more interested in Shorts if the price runs into key resistances, say at $2,420, but we don't expect this level to be retested anytime soon. For this reason, we just steer clear of ETH for now. The play recently was BTC into the Short box zone.
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