Ethereum’s price puzzle: Can ETH catch up to the crypto rally?

With a critical battle at $1,933 on the horizon, we wonder if this is the turning point for ETH. Is ETH about to regain lost ground, or are storm clouds on the horizon? 

Let’s see if ETH can have its moment in the spotlight. 

TLDR

• ETH faces a crucial horizontal resistance at $1,933 for a potential rally.
• An uptrend line is holding, with local support at $1,853 and major support at $1,745.
• ETH's daily RSI is overbought with a bearish divergence, but the 3D and weekly RSI remain healthy.
• Funding rates indicate longs are accumulating, and ETH appears attractive for a long-term play.

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

Macro analysis

The macro context follows through to all other assets that trade highly correlated with other risk assets. 

Technical analysis

Looking at ETH from a technical analysis perspective, we can see that it’s holding the uptrend but is now moving into a key horizontal resistance of $1,933. ETH has certainly underperformed in terms of performance. For it to catch up, ETH will need to get above $1,933. If it does, this may lift the lid off ETH to go on a run like some other plays have done. 

However, the uptrend line is broken, ETH will be looking to find local support around $1,853, with more major support at $1,745. If ETH can surpass $1,933, then it could get a quick upside to $2,340. 

ETH 1D

ETH 3D

Market mechanics

Looking at ETH regarding its RSI, the daily is overbought and has put in a bearish divergence, but the 3D and the weekly are not in overbought territory yet. 

Funding rates have turned more meaningfully positive, indicating longs are beginning to pile up, although the open Interest hasn’t moved much higher over the past few days. This is likely a closing of some ETH shorts rather than loads more Longs piling in.  

This is still a relatively healthy setup. 

Cryptonary’s take

Despite ETH grinding higher and lacking in performance against other plays, we still like ETH here. Based on other plays, we feel that ETH should be between the $2,100 to $2,300 range. When we look at some of the mechanics, this isn’t overheated. If BTC holds up, we would expect ETH to get some outperformance at some point soon. 

Price-wise, we believe ETH is still very attractive at $1,900 for a long-term play - considering we see ETH easily surpassing its all-time highs in the next bull market.