As usual, we start with BTC, ETH, and SOL today. We also touch on the exciting opportunities shaping up in RUNE and the ever-exciting RNDR – it’s all about strategic entries and potential gains.
But that's not all! We also dive into the wild world of meme coins where WIF continues to defy gravity, holding steady at higher price points, and the enigmatic POPCAT tantalises us with its uncanny resemblance to WIF's early price action, igniting dreams of explosive growth.
Fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a rollercoaster ride through the market.
Let's go!!!
TLDR
- BTC's Open Interest and Funding Rate have reset, indicating a healthier market, but further consolidation or range-bound action is likely in the near term.
- ETH has seen a substantial resetting of Open Interest and Funding Rate, paving the way for potential bullish price action.
- SOL has bounced impressively from the Yellow Buy Box, hinting at a swift journey to new heights if resistance levels are breached.
- RUNE and RNDR present opportunities for strategic entries and potential gains, with RNDR being a compelling beta play for Solana.
- WIF continues to defy gravity, holding steady at higher price points
- POPCAT tantalizingly mirrors WIF's early price action, igniting dreams of explosive growth.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
BTC
Bitcoin's Open Interest (amount of leverage build-up) was at $35.55b. It had decreased to $31.61b, a considerable resetting. OI has now increased back up to $33.24b.Overall, we needed to see some of the built-up leverage be flushed out. Is a 10% decrease enough for a healthy resetting? It's hard to say.
But a 10% drawdown is still positive, considering we were in a frothy environment ten days ago.
The Funding Rate has also reset to healthier levels, now far closer to 0.01% rather than in between the 0.05% to 0.09% areas, which is too high and shows substantial overcrowding in the "Long" trade, which would usually end in a more violent flushing out.
Technical analysis
- Once BTC broke below the horizontal level of $69,000, it has struggled to reclaim that level now on several occasions.
- BTC didn't quite hit its Yellow Buy Box as many other coins did, but it has bounced relatively well so far from just above that level.
- Price has now broken out of a small downtrend line. The aim of this move is to at least retest $69,000. If price doesn't or $69k isn't broken to the upside, then a retest of $63,300 would be likely.
- The RSI is still considerably overbought on the larger timeframes such as the 3D and Weekly.
Cryptonary's take
Our thoughts remain similar to last week. The on-chain metrics are in overheated zones, while Open Interest and Funding were also at similarly overheated levels.We have begun to see a flushing out of the excess leverage (Open Interest coming down), and Funding is now also resetting substantially. But, we still see overbought/overheated on-chain and trading indicators.
For this reason, we see the market as looking more likely to see further price consolidation or range-bound price action over the coming weeks. We expect this range-bound action to be between $63,300 and $69,000. A breakout of $69k would be a bullish continuation. A breakdown below $63,300 would likely see price touch $59k. If this were to happen, we'd look to buy more BTC at this price point.
For now, we remain patient while price action is in a consolidation phase, and we will look to add to our bags if BTC moves below $60k.
ETH
ETH's Open Interest has pulled back more substantially from the high of $13.21b over ten days ago. The low of $11.34 was put in as ETH hit $3,100. This looks to us as more of a substantial resetting of Open Interest, which is positive for more future bullish price action.The Funding Rate has also reset to the 0.014% mark, so again, this is a more substantial reset of this data point. This shows that the over-positioned Longs have now been flushed out and reset—this is positive.
Technical analysis
- ETH perfectly filled its Yellow Buy Box and has bounced really nicely from that level. This is a good example of why it's wise to leave Limit Buy Orders on Exchanges, placed at the prices of the Yellow box.
- Following ETH filling the Yellow box, price bounced right back up to the horizontal resistance of $3,525, which has since acted as resistance again.
- ETH has retested the $3,525 level again today and so far has seemingly rejected from this level.
- It may be the case that we see another pullback from the $3,525 to potentially retest $3,200 again.
- The RSI on the major timeframes is no longer in overbought territory, but it's close to that level. ETH perhaps needs more time for price to consolidate or even pull back a tad, which then resets these metrics further. This would be bullish for future price action if we were to get this in the short term.
Cryptonary's take
Even though ETH has pulled back from its highs at $4,000, we still view it as in a good spot here. Yes, ETH may pull back further, potentially even retesting the Yellow Buy Box again. If ETH were to get to the Yellow box, we would be buyers of ETH at that level.We're therefore not looking to sell our Spot bags anytime soon and just looking to add if ETH reaches the $2,980 to $3,090 price zone.
SOL
The Open Interest has seen a substantial resetting in the last few weeks from $2.80b to $2.20b, which has been needed. Once the market becomes frothy (too much leverage), you ideally want to see the excess flushed out (Open Interest will then come down).The Funding Rate has also decreased to healthier levels meaning there is now a better balance between Longs and Shorts, again a healthier setup for the market.
Technical analysis
- Having filled the Local Yellow Buy Box, SOL bounced from that area and is now attempting to clear above a local resistance between $190 and $195.
- The major overhead resistance is at $205, potentially up to $210. We believe price will clear above this level at some point, and when it does, we see the journey up to $255 as being relatively swift.
- If SOL can't clear above $195 in the short term, it may pull back to the $160 to $175 area.
- The bottom Yellow Buy Box hasn't been filled, so we're still open to price pulling back to that level. However, we're not super confident it will. We expect price to just remain more range-bound for some time.
- The RSI was overbought on the larger timeframes but reset when price remained range-bound between $120 and $80. We may see a period like this where price potentially stays between $150 and $200 over the coming 2-8 weeks before the really breaking out.
Cryptonary's take
Again, this is another coin with which we must just remain patient.We're certainly not looking to sell our SOL bags and would look to add sub $160. However, another strategy may be to target SOL beta plays if there is another pullback in prices across the board. The obvious standouts here would be RNDR, NOS, PYTH, WIF, and POPCAT.
RUNE
- Perfect fill of the Yellow Buy Box. RUNE is one of the coins which really respects the Yellow Buy Boxes.
- RUNE is now attempting to break out of a local downtrend line.
- A move up to the major horizontal resistance at $11.00 is possible, but we see RUNE as likely staying more range-bound for a while rather than making a serious breakout.
- The current price pullback has reset some of the overbought trading indicators. This is positive for price, particularly considering price bounced well from the Yellow Buy Box. Pullbacks are bought up.
Cryptonary's take
RUNE has the potential to see more volatile price action, but like the rest of the market, we see price action for RUNE staying more range-bound in the short term. If you're a holder of RUNE, meaningful pullbacks (the Yellow Buy Box between $7.00 and $7.50) could be an attractive area to buy.RNDR
- RNDR hasn't moved low enough where it has filled its Yellow Buy Box, although we may get an opportunity to fill this area in the coming weeks.
- RNDR has previously respected/filled Yellow Buy Boxes.
- RNDR is currently in a local uptrend. However, if it breaks to the downside and $10.50 cannot hold, then the Yellow Buy Box between $8.90 and $9.40 could be filled.
- If price reached the Yellow box, we'd be buyers at this level, and I (Tom) would be an aggressive buyer of RNDR at that price point if we were given the opportunity.
- The RSI has been reset substantially on the local timeframes but remains overbought on the 3D and the Weekly. A move down to the Yellow Buy Box would reset these indicators and likely add to the case that the $8.90 to $9.40 area would be a good buying level.
Cryptonary's take
RNDR is a beta play for SOL and, therefore, could be a great play going into the next 6 to 15 months. If price does make a pullback to sub $10, particularly the Yellow box, then we would be an aggressive buyer of RNDR at those price points.WIF
- WIF has established itself at the higher price points, having soared from the $0.30 to $0.40 level up to the $2.50 level a month ago. In the long term, this is very positive for price action, and it's been able to do this rather than ride price back down.
- WIF is currently in a big pennant-like pattern, and a breakout in either direction (price is currently breaching the upper boundary) could result in a significant price move.
- The RSI has been nicely reset on the 12hr and the Daily, which is good. But the 3D and the Weekly are, of course, overbought. But because this coin is so new, that doesn't really concern us.
Cryptonary's take
Due to WIF being a meme, you'd expect the volatility to be crazy, and it has been, but that is the nature of the beast.Ultimately, WIF has done phenomenally to hold up at this price point, which is now stabilising into a base for price to potentially go substantially higher in the mid and long-term.
We're still holding WIF and happy to continue doing so. If you had 0 exposure, we do see WIF as a great play for the bull run. However, we'd look for attractive entries, which may be below $2.00. This does risk potentially not seeing this price be touched and you missing out. But again, that is the game.
POPCAT
- Having peaked at $0.38, POPCAT began downtrending and dropped from $0.13 to $0.17, where it seemed to stabilise and bidders came in. From this, it looks like the $0.13 to $0.17 area would be a strong support going forward, only a 20x to 24x up from our original entries (LFG).
- From forming that base between $0.13 to $0.17, price moved higher but then rejected at the local downtrend line, pulling back to $0.15 and being quickly bought up.
- The local horizontal resistance is now at $0.2688, which is a 7% or so move up from the current price... not much of a move at all when it comes to memes.
Cryptonary's take
Overall, we're really pleased with the price action, which reminds us of $WIF's price action a few months ago before $WIF broke out of $0.40 and shot up above $1.00.The aim in the short-term will be for $POPCAT to get above $0.2688 and build a base above that level, i.e. price to pullback and use $0.2688 as new support.
If we got this, it would be considered super bullish for price action. However, we're also aware that the majors (BTC, ETH, SOL) may just be range-bound price-action-wise for a while.
Therefore, it may take more time for POPCAT to get a more substantial breakout. However, the substantial breakout may be a breakout of $0.38. Let's see. The plan here for us is to continue remaining calm and working on reducing our sensitivity to volatility (especially USD-wise) considering we're up substantially on this position with the possibility that price actually goes a lot higher in the medium and long term.
This also means we're not looking to add to current bags. If you were under-exposed, the time to add was sub $0.15 (a gift now, looking back on that price point). We're remaining calm, not looking to sell Spot, and just looking to ride this.
The key levels for price to get above are $0.2688 and $0.38. We want to see convincing candle closures above those levels.
Let's see what we get.
LFG!!!
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