Is Bitcoin's bullish breakout sustainable?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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• BTC's Open Interest (by number of coins) has increased whilst Funding remains range-bound/fluctuating between slightly positive and negative. This move up in price has been driven by some leverage, but it's also been supported by a Spot bid.

BTC's open interest (by number of coins):

Technical analysis

• BTC has broken out of its main downtrend line, and despite being in a tight range for a few days (between $83,500 and $85,500), price has now broken out to the upside.
• Price has now moved up to a local resistance zone between $87,500 and $88,500, however, the major horizontal resistance is at $91,700.
• If price reclaimed $91,700, that would indicate a bullish reversal, and we'd have to look to change our stance. However, we don't see price reclaiming this level anytime soon,
• On the downside, $82,000 is horizontal support, with the next major level in a zone between $74,800 and $78,500.
• The RSI had broken out of its downtrend line some time ago, and having also been sitting above its moving average, it has now broken upwards. It remains in middle territory, so it's possible this price move could extend into $88,500.

• Next Support: $82,000
• Next Resistance: $88,500
• Direction: Bearish
• Upside Target: $88,500
• Downside Target: $82,000

Cryptonary's take

Whilst price has positively broken out to the upside, we remain sceptical of the move. In fact, between $87,500 and $89,000, we will be looking to Short BTC, with the target being a minimum of a retest of $82,000. In the short term, we see upside as close to being done, and therefore we do expect price to pull back over the coming weeks, again with $82,000 as being the minimum target.

In the medium term, we are still expecting a retest of the lows, and hence, for now, we remain patient. A price reclaim of $91,700, and we'd have to consider that we're wrong and we'd look to reassess our positioning.