LINK, RUNE and ARB struggle as BTC and ETH battle resistance

Starting with Bitcoin, we assess multiple data points to build a data-driven bullish or bearish bias for BTC. 

In the rest of today’s analysis, we will dive into other different coins to see which ones provide the best opportunities for potential trades. 

Ready to dive in? LFG!!!

TLDR

• BTC - Rangebound between $27,100 and $28,300, waiting for a breakout.
• ETH - Needs to reclaim $1,660 to prove further upside. Risk of selloff below $1,605 otherwise.
• SOL - Watch for potential short around $24-$25 if funding resets and bearish divergence forms.
• LINK - Likely to remain rangebound, interested in shorting around $8.07. Expect lower prices.
• RUNE - Upside to $2.19-$2.28 possible, but would look to short.
• ARB - Struggling at $0.86 support after failing to retest uptrend. Selling rallies preferred

Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the R:R trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.

BTC | Bitcoin

ETH | Ethereum

ETH has lost a key area, so a bounce (and a relatively sizeable one at that) is needed here to see ETH get some follow-through that could re-challenge the main $1,745 horizontal resistance

Technical analysis

After ETH’s price ascent was rejected from the more major horizontal resistance of $1,745, we would have wanted to see the local support of $1,660 hold. But then, seeing that the next local support of $1,625 also didn’t hold, we would say this is not positive for ETH’s price going higher. Price action looks more bearish here.

RSI and funding rates

The RSI is in neutral territory, while rates are relatively positive. Nothing stands out here, and we sit in neutral territories. These aspects are neither bullish nor bearish.

Conclusion on trading ETH

Recent price action has been bearish. We predicted the move higher to the horizontal resistance of $1,745. Still, with the rejection being as bad as it has been (not being able to hold at local supports), we wouldn't be positive on ETH here. In fact, it would need to show a significantly strong uptrend to undo our opinion.

Action

Steering well clear of trading ETH for now.

SOL | Solana

This is one of the plays/opportunities we like the most. Let's jump into it.

Technical analysis

SOL’s price has burst much higher, as we know, and it now sits in a broadening channel (an ugly pattern really). It held the lower line of the broadening channel last night and now looks to be trying to go higher. IF, and a big if, SOL can get up to $24.40 to $25.00, this would put in a higher high, and this would be the opportunity we'd go for. 

Explanation in conclusion.

RSI and funding rates

The RSI is key here. We're at 65, so close to overbought conditions. If we get a move higher in price to $24.40 to $25.00, that’ll be a higher price and likely put in a lower high (but in overbought territory) on the RSI. This would be a bearish divergence following what would likely be an exhaustive move higher. 

Funding is relatively positive, so this isn't being over-shorted here. Based on this, we think it is okay for the price to go higher for now.

Conclusion on trading SOL

We are watching this very keenly. If we get that move to $24.40 to $25.00, put in the bearish divergence, and funding rates don't go negative, we will short the move between those price levels of $24.40 to $25.00. 

If the price gets to that level, we'd like to see BTC at $28,300 while at the same time looking exhausted and ready to be rejected again. 

Action

If all the above aligns, in our opinion, this would be a good trade opportunity.

RUNE | Thorchain

RUNE looks to have been rejected from the main horizontal resistance at $1.97. The price action of the next few days will likely be important for how the price will perform over the coming month or so.

Technical analysis

We're still in the main uptrend, which is good. However, the clear rejection from the $1.97 horizontal resistance (the price lost the battle at that level) is not good. We could get a small bounce from the $1.78 - $1.83 level (a bounce off the trend line), which could get us back up to $1.97. If RUNE rejects from there, we think it will head lower to the break well below the main uptrend line.

RSI 

The RSI is currently putting in a hidden bullish divergence. This could give us that bounce from the trend line that gets us back closer to $1.97.

Conclusion on trading RUNE

If we were holding RUNE, we would look to sell some of our bags at $1.97. This is crucial if it can bounce back there since it looks as if the price struggles to break above that level. 

At the same time, we would potentially look for a short to ride the move down. There’s a decent chance RUNE will eventually break below the up-trend line. 

In the short term, a possible move back to $1.97 or near there. However, we feel RUNE will reject from there and then proceed to retest the uptrend line. And then, we see it breaking below that line to likely kick off a deeper sell-off.

AVAX| Avalanche

We’ve seen AVAX move well over the past week, and a lot of chatter again about it on Twitter. Let's look into it.

Technical analysis

There’s a big breakout of the main downtrend line, and volume came in to shove the price back above the $9.65 resistance area. However, there is a relatively large resistance area just above us - the red box area on the chart.

RSI and funding rates

The RSI is approaching overbought levels (currently at 67), while funding is quite negative. This could fuel a short squeeze.

Conclusion on trading AVAX

If we get a short squeeze because funding is negative, the price gets into the red box area, and the RSI is well north of overbought, we may look for shorts in the red box.

We are not taking any action ourselves for now as we think SOL is still the prime opportunity for a trade. But we will reassess AVAX if our theory is proven right and it shoves higher into the red box. If we get that, we'll reassess, but we will likely be looking for a short.

Trading ARB | Arbitrum

ARB remains at a crucial point as it continues battling a key level.

Technical analysis

ARB is in a big battle at the $0.86 horizontal support. This also converges with the main downtrend line. ARB must get above these levels and settle back above $0.92. If we get that, we can push onto $1.05. But right now, this looks too weak, so we don't have much confidence we'll even break above $0.92. Of course, we can be wrong, but it looks really weak.

RSI  and Funding

The RSI and funding rates are in middle territories, so there is nothing to report on here. 

Conclusion on trading ARB

As mentioned last week, if we had a bag of ARB, we would be a seller of rallies. 

Other than that, we don't look to trade it. And at this part in the macro cycle, we are not interested in accumulating any ARB for now. That’s not denying the fact that it will be a major project in the next bull run. We just feel we get better prices in the coming months.

Overall, we don't feel confident in ARB here. We'd be a seller of rallies if we had a bag of it. At a crucial level of $0.86, let's see how that battle commences. If that level is lost, we see $0.75 being retested in the coming 4-10 weeks.

Cryptonary’s take

There aren’t many clear trades in the market currently. Being selective and waiting for high-probability setups based on key levels and indicators seems prudent. 

Trades with definitive upsides appear limited in the short term for most majors besides isolated moves. Therefore, patience and discipline will be key until a clearer trend emerges.

As always, than you for reading.

Cryptonary out!