Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for your own capital decisions.
What’s happened
- Last Week: BTC’s been choppy - mostly just range bound between the range lows ($77k) and the local resistance ($86k). Meanwhile, TradFi Index's (SPX and NDX), made new lows (down 10.4% for SPX, and 14.2% for the Nasdaq) but closed the week with a small bounce, potentially putting in a short-term local bottom.
- Big Picture: the Trump administration continue to be the cause of most of the uncertainty in the market with a flip-flopping and ever changing communication on tariffs and policy. This has then reflected in Yields which have actually moved higher in the last two weeks from 4.10% to 4.32%. This is despite Bessent (Treasury Secretary), continuing to suggest that the administration are targeting a lower US10Y Yield. Bitcoin and risk assets are likely to continue to struggle in this current environment.
What’s coming next week
- Monday: Retail Sales (Feb) – The consensus is for a +0.7% print, which would see a big move higher from last months -0.9% print. This might also quell some of the market fears over a rapidly deteriorating consumer, should we see a positive print.
- Wednesday: FOMC Decision – Rates likely hold at 4.25–4.5%. Hawkish tone (no cuts soon) = BTC downside to low $70k's; dovish hint (cuts by summer, or more than 2 cuts signalled in the Dot Plot) = bid to $86k-87k. This is the one to watch.
- Wild Card: Trump tariff noise - a continued strong tariff stance could continue to hurt risk assets.
Levels we’re watching:
- BTC: Support at $75k to $77k. Resistance at $87k - will need an extremely dovish Fed to punch through, which we're not sure we'll get.
- Setup: Short BTC at $87k-89k if it can get there. Above $93k would be invalidation.
Cryptonary’s take
Markets are twitchy - tariff uncertainty’s still the big cloud, but Wednesday’s Fed meeting is the week’s main watching point. We’re expecting Powell to play it safe, with him being non-committal to future cuts, and he'll likely just guide towards the newly released Dot Plot. BTC may trade lower, if Powell doesn't hint towards more cuts. It's possible we see an oversold relief rally in this upcoming week, but we're not expecting it to be big, and we're not looking to buy it. If anything, we're looking to Short any obvious local tops.Peace!
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