Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
What’s Happened:
- Last Week: President Trump backtracked and postponed a lot of the tariffs that he and his administration had put on other nations in the prior weeks. Both Indexes (S&P and the Nasdaq) bounced substantially off the back of this. BTC also bounced off the lows, up 12.75% from the lows. One of the main worries going forward is the rise in long-end Bonds. This isn't what the administration want to see, particularly with 30% of the US debt due for refinancing this year.
- Big Picture: The market is still digesting the Trump tariffs, and whilst they have been postponed/unwound, the market is still battling with the fact that the overall level of uncertainty remains here. This is likely going to continue to be the case.
- Throughout the week: there isn't any significant data out, so the markets focus will remain on Trump, tariffs and potential trade deals.
- Wild Card: Constant tariff watch as we reported last week. However, another thing we'll be watching closely is the Bond market and the rising Yields. If we continue to see spreads widen, this could result in something breaking in the Bond market, and this could bring the FED to the 'interest rate cutting table' sooner than we anticipated. Initially, the markets would likely sell-off if something were to break in the Bond market.
- BTC: The key area of resistance on this rebound will be $87,000 now. If BTC were to come lower (a retest of the lows), say sub $78,000, we'd look to begin building longer-term positions again.
- Setup: We're no longer looking for Shorts. And in fact our bias is to look for Longs as short-term trading opportunities. But, the even greater focus will be on accumulating Spot bags for the longer-term
Cryptonary’s Take:
In the last week, we've shifted from a bearish to more bullish and proactive stance. We're expecting the rally in the short-term to likely continue, however, we do expect the price lows (particularly for BTC) to be retested again. If we're right on this thesis, we'll look to buy, and re-add again, to longer-term Spot bags - for the first time since we sold in January. It feels like peak fear is behind us, but with the level of uncertainty that still remains, we do expect prices to retest the lows over the coming weeks/months. We will look to add in to this, especially when we look across the board and we see many charts look to have bottomed/close to bottomed/putting in their bottom. We'll re-buy longer-term Spot bags into this bottoming process. And we're looking forward to doing so.Let's Go!
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