Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
What's happened
- Last week: President Trump announced aggressive reciprocal tariffs on top of the 10% tariffs. This saw Equity markets puke lower, with the S&P and the Nasdaq both falling 10.8% and 12.5% respectively from Wednesday's high up until Friday's close. BTC held up phenomenally well under this only dropping 7.00% in the same time frame.
- Big Picture: Last week, we saw the markets sell off dramatically off the back of Trump's tariffs. This sets us up for a really volatile next few weeks with the levels of uncertainty at heightened levels. In the short term, the markets are likely to be whipsawed by breaking news headlines, so traders, prepare for this ahead of time.
What's coming next week
- Throughout the week: we have a number of FED members speaking. We expect them to toe the line of 'no cuts anytime soon', with the possibility of them being more hawkish than Powell. But, note, the market is currently pricing for 4.5 interest rate cuts in 2025.
- Thursday: Inflation data - the inflation data is expected to come in lighter. The market will likely like this as it'll mean Powell could cut rates sooner.
- Friday: Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations surveys - recently, we've seen the soft data weaken. It'll be interesting to see if we see the same here.
- Wild Card: Constant tariff watch - we'll be constantly watching for any signs of trade deals being done and countries coming to the negotiation table. We'll also be looking out for any retaliatory measures/tariffs. The market is likely to move mostly off of any tariff news next week.
Levels we're watching
- BTC: The key area of support for BTC is $81,500 to $82,000. That's the key level of support. To the upside, $86,000 is the horizontal resistance.
- Setup: We're no longer in the BTC Short, but we'll continue to look for Shorts in specific ALTS, and maybe again BTC if we see a small rally, maybe to say $86,000.
Cryptonary's take
We're likely expecting another huge week. Inflation is a key data point again, as the market will be pleased to see lower inflation, as that gives Powell a window to cut interest rates. We're also expecting more headlines on the tariff front: retaliation, trade deals, or even just 'positive calls' between Trump and trade partners.We'll continue to look for opportunities, likely in Shorts, likely in ALTS.
PS - the more aggressive Trump is (he's being super aggressive), the more likely rate cuts are, and the more likely we get a number of them. The current expectation is that they will begin in July. Be ready! We'll break this down further in Tuesday's Market Update.
Let's Go!
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