Market outlook for week ahead – March 31, 2025

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---

What’s Happened:

• Last Week: BTC finally broke down perfectly as we had been expecting. For a few weeks, we patiently waited for price to grind higher into our Short Box (between $86,300 and $91,700). Price perfectly filled the box (filling our Shorts) and price has since dropped to the $83k level. The SPX (S&P500) and NDX (Nasdaq) also had negative week's, dropping 3.5% and 5.2% respectively from their mid-week highs.
• Big Picture: last week, the market seemed to really start believing the strong stance from the Trump administration around tariffs and that's likely why we saw risk sell-off. This also wasn't helped by the higher Core PCE numbers as well.

What’s Coming Next Week

• Tuesday: JOLT's – this'll be interesting to see if the number of available jobs begins decreasing if employers become more cautious. Although expectations are for the print to come in slightly lighter.
• Wednesday: Reciprocal tariffs – last week, Trump teased that the reciprocal tariffs might be lower than what the market currently is expecting. However, with Trump, the market knows to expect the unexpected.
• Friday: Jobs data - interestingly, the consensus numbers are lighter than what has been the case for the last few months. Expectations are just for 80k jobs added in the US with the Unemployment Rate ticking up also.
• Wild Card: if the reciprocal tariffs are much lighter (lower numbers), the market could see some significant relief off the back of this. This isn't our base case/expectation currently though.

Levels We’re Watching:

• BTC: Support at $75k to $77k. Resistance at $87k held strong and price rejected. We're now looking to see if the local support of $82k can hold. We think it won't and hence we continue to hold the BTC Short.
• Setup: We're now in the BTC Short from the $87k's and we'll look for a move into the $70k's. If the reciprocal tariffs are much lighter, that relief rally from that is what might encourage us to close the Short out. Fingers on the pulse this week.

---

Cryptonary’s take:

A huge week next week, on the data front, and the tariff/Trump policy front. Risk assets look to be in a fragile position currently and another aggressive stance from the Trump administration could push the Index's (SPX and NDX) and BTC to new lows. It should be an exciting week, especially now that we're in a nice BTC Short trade. PS - Our BTC Short, and predicted price action is playing out perfectly as we expected it to. Slow grind up to the Short Box (between $86,300 and $91,700), and then down it goes from there.

Looking forward to it.

Let's Go!