Market outlook for week ahead – May 4th, 2025

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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What's happened

• Last Week: BTC continued to climb higher, breaching above $95,700, and the price is now pushing on to the top resistance of $98,900. We also continued to see the macro data come out fairly strong, however, a lot of this is still pre-liberation day data.
• Big Picture: As we mentioned above, the stronger data has supported this rally, however, we do expect it to begin deteriorating over the next 4-6 weeks, and we expect the market to react to that. Our expectation is that the market would re-price materially lower off the back of this. Therefore, our preference is still to remain patient as we expect substantially lower prices to come.

What's coming next week

• FED Meeting: The only major data point this week is the FED Meeting. Our expectation is that Powell should and likely will maintain a hawkish stance, whilst the FED keep the Interest Rate unchanged. It's very difficult for Powell and the FED to cut interest rates into rising inflation expectations, and before we, and they know what the inflationary effects of the tariffs are going to be. Therefore, we expect Powell to be hawkish and for him to likely guide that cuts aren't coming in the coming June or July Meeting; however, September could be very likely.

Levels we're watching

• BTC: For BTC, and simply put, the key levels are the major resistance at $98,900 (with $100,000 as a psychological level), and $91,700 as the key support (with $90,000 as another psychological level). Our expectations are that price won't move north of $98,900 ($100k say), and we do eventually expect a move back down to the mid $80k's.
• Setup: If price moves into the $98,900 to $100,000 range, we may consider a Short, as long as Funding Rates aren't negative. We'd have a Stop around $105k, and a Take Profit at $85k.

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Cryptonary's take

We're still patient here as we expect prices to come lower over the coming months, and we'll look to accumulate into that as the tailwinds going into late Q3 and Q4 are likely to be extremely positive. Our reasoning is that we're expecting the economic data to materially worsen, and therefore the market should re-price substantially lower off the back of that.

And beyond that, once we know the tariff affects an where they eventually settle (this might take more months to know), we would then expect Powell and the FED to cut interest rates in late Q3 and in Q4, giving risk assets some major tailwinds. Therefore, our plan is to accumulate on the downside, we expect to come over the next 1-3 months.

For now, we're still patient, though.

BTC: