Market Pulse: Bearish Thesis Invalidated, BTC All-Time Highs Soon
BTC shattered resistance, flipping the short-term bear case on its head. With the macro backdrop still supportive, will the crypto rally finally catch up to gold’s gains? Here's the setup after this breakout move...
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Invalidation of Short-Term Bearish Thesis
We recently put out our reasoning for why we might see BTC break down and put in a new low. This has now been invalidated with the BTC price breakout to $118k.We have always noted that the macro-outlook has been positive - the Fed cutting interest rates, but in a way that is a move down from neutral, rather than an aggressive cutting cycle to get in front of growth concerns. This is the better outcome for risk assets. However, recently, we've seen risk assets rip higher (Equities) whilst BTC has lagged and pulled back.
What we did note, though, was that Gold was getting the flows, with the price having a phenomenal surge higher over recent months. And historically, Gold has performed, and then BTC has caught up as Gold has consolidated - something we've covered in depth and kept referring to in our recent Market Updates. It looks like that's going to be the case again.
Gold is now very overbought, and it looks ripe for a consolidation period. We expect to get that and for the baton to be passed to BTC.
Gold 1D Chart:
Market Strength and Pullback Possibilities
The recent price move up for BTC has been nothing short of phenomenal. It's broken above all key horizontal resistances with the chart putting in higher lows and higher highs, despite the recent low (at $109k) not forming a typical bottoming structure.It's possible that BTC is locally topping here, and a small pullback might be on the cards over the coming days. However, we wouldn't look to sell here, and we expect pullbacks to be shallow - potentially just $116,500-$118,000.
Because of recent price action strength, along with a supportive macro environment, we expect BTC to break out to new all-time highs in the coming weeks. Should price retest $116,500-$118,000, we'd likely look to add to our BTC Spot bags at that price zone, with a view to targeting a breakout to $130k.
BTC 1D Chart:
Cryptonary's Take:
Recently, this has been a super hard market to navigate. We've had a supportive macro backdrop where we've been spot on in calling for rate cuts, the number of cuts, and the type of cuts (a move down from restrictive territory). However, other risk assets had moved higher, whilst BTC and Crypto in general had underperformed. This is why recently we have questioned our bullish thesis further and provided the option for some hedging.Well, considering this strong recent price action, we expect the baton to pass to BTC, and it's our view that we see new all-time highs in the coming weeks, and that any dips should be bought.
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