- Non-Farm Payrolls: Forecast 130k, Actual 139k
- Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.2%, Actual 4.2%
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
The labour market data comes in at the forecasted numbers. We've seen a slight downtick on the number of jobs added (non-farms), but Unemployment remains at 4.2,% which still suggests the economy is strong and businesses aren't laying off staff, at least not yet, although the number of jobs added each month is slowing.
What's next
No rate cuts. Slowing growth. Rising wages. Markets are ignoring the cracks—for now. But how long can they?One other note is that Average Hourly Earnings does uptick, so this would push FED rate cuts out (even though they're already quite pushed out). This is a weakening trend in the labour market, but for now, it's still ok. For now, we won't get Interest Rate cuts, but as we said, this is a weakening trend, so it's likely only a matter of time. But for now, the data is ok. We'll likely see a chop in markets over the next 1-2 months.
Short-term: Nothing is falling apart for now, but we're in a slowing/weakening trend.
Market reaction since: Not much reaction for now, a small uptick for risk assets. For now, good news is good news.
How to position: We're still sitting in cash, and we expect prices to pull back over the summer. We'll look to get allocated on major pullbacks.
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