Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Good evening, all.
This is a quick update giving our thoughts post FED Meeting and Powell's Press Conference.
The Cut and the Dot Plot:
In short, the FED lowered rates by 25bps, and guided towards more cuts in October and December of this year. However, the Dot Plot shows just 1 more cut in 2026, so = 2 more cuts in 2025, and 1 more in 2026. We think this will be wrong, and they'll actually cut more than once in 2026.Powell's Notable Comments:
Alongside the above, Powell made a few notable comments during the press conference. Here are a few:- "New data suggests that there is meaningful downside risk to the labour market".
- "Don't know that 25bps will make a huge difference", i.e., they'll need to cut more.
- "Our policy HAD been skewed toward inflation," i.e., it's now skewed toward the labour market, which suggests more cuts are needed.
- "Can consider this cut as a risk management cut".
Summary:
This was a hugely contradictory Powell who had low conviction on what to forward guide to markets. Ultimately, we think this is a continued grind higher market into year-end, as we expect the FED to continue cutting rates in October and December due to a weakening labour market.The Rest of the Week's Work:
We will dive into more detail on the FED and Powell in tomorrow's Market Update, along with the markets' reaction and what we're expecting going forward. I (Tom) and Adam will be on a Live Stream tomorrow evening, covering the FED, macro, and charts in greater detail. Lastly, on Friday, we will release a new Market Direction to send you guys into the weekend with.Looking forward to it all - LET'S GOOO!!!!!
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