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Market Pulse

Market Pulse: Hot Jobs Print and Middle East Tensions

Published: Apr 3, 2026

Jobs data smashed forecasts and geopolitical tensions escalate, but market reactions stay muted as Good Friday closures limit moves. Will BTC hold range support or slip lower if conflict intensifies next week?

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

Jobs Data is Out

Non Farm Payrolls: Forecast 57k, Actual 178k
Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.4%, Actual 4.3%

This is a strong print. Non Farm Payrolls come in above expectations, and the Unemployment Rate has ticked down to 4.3%. It allows the Fed to remain on pause and solely focus on the inflation side of their mandate - not good for risk assets as it means no rate cuts anytime soon.

There is a small dovish counterweight: wages fell from 3.8% to 3.5% YoY, whilst last months Non Farm Payrolls were revised lower from -92k, to -133k. Ultimately, this shouldn't change much as this months reading counters this.

What This Means?

Coming into today's print, the market's focus has been on the conflict in the Middle East and the potential escalation that we might see over the coming days. This conflict has shifted the market's focus to the inflation side of the Fed's mandate rather than the labour market side of the mandate. Most markets are closed today (Equities are trading for just the first hour of the day, and Bonds are trading for half a day) for Good Friday, so we expected a muted market reaction today - and that's what we've seen, even though the print comes in hot. But, the muted reaction is because the Fed can remain on hold (so no cuts), and therefore there's not much here for risk assets to get excited about.

A strong labour market means no cuts, and therefore, no tailwinds for risk assets, hence they've traded very slightly lower.

What Else We're Watching?

In the last hour, Iranian state media is reporting that a US F-15 was shot down over Iran, with the pilot ejecting and now potentially being in Iranian hands. There are now a number of US aircraft, including Black Hawks flying at low altitude (trying to not be detected) over Southern Iran, likely searching for the pilot/crew.

Should US military personnel be captured in Iran, that would be an escalation and markets would likely react badly to this - granted, markets are closed today. But should this escalate further over the weekend, we'd expect risk assets to react poorly on next week's open.

Our View?

We expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $63k and $71k, however, should price break out above $71k, then $76k would come into play. But, with price trading closer to the key $65k horizontal support, a move down to $63k looks more likely than a retest of $71k.

Our Base Case: is for Bitcoin to remain range-bound in the immediate term. However, it is possible that price can break down and retest $63k. Should we see a test of $60k-$63k, we'd look to deploy some cash (into buying BTC) in that price zone, with a view to holding for the long-term.

Cryptonary’s Take:

This labour market print makes the Fed's job slightly easier: they have to cater to the inflation side of the mandate rather than the labour market side of the mandate, and therefore, they'll keep rates unchanged at least during Q2, but likely for longer.

For now, we remain patient and overweight to cash as financial conditions have tightened in recent weeks, whilst there's significant geopolitical risks. This is an unsupportive environment for risk assets, and hence our positioning: overweight cash.

Our framework suggests that price will retest key on-chain cost basis between $54k-$59k over the coming months. Our base case is that prices will visit the $50k-$63k zone, which is a deep value area for price, and therefore that zone is where we’d expect the risk/reward to shift meaningfully in favour of long-term positioning.

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