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- Core Inflation MoM: Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.1%
- Core Inflation YoY: Forecast 2.9%, Actual 2.8%
- Inflation Rate MoM: Forecast 0.2%, Actual 0.1%
- Inflation Rate YoY: Forecast 2.5%, **Actual 2.4%
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Simply put, great print.
The inflation data comes in softer, as we expected it would, and suggested on yesterday's Live Stream. So far, we're not seeing a ton of tariff fallout spill into the inflation data, although it is still possible that it can come through in the coming months. For now, this is good to see and great for markets. It also likely brings FED cuts slightly further forward, assuming we don't see Inflation rise substantially over the coming months.
What's next
The Fed might blink sooner — but history shows early celebrations can backfire. One wrong data point resets everything. See how we’re preparing before the crowd catches on.Short-term: Probably good for markets in the short term, although it is a tad early to celebrate lower inflation, as we need to see the data over the coming months.
Market reaction since: Likely stabilises markets and gives confidence that we can see further upside.
How to position: We're now more actively allocating, and we're looking for opportunities across the board - Majors, Memes, Alts, the lot.
PS - Great to see that TOTAL3 has reclaimed its horizontal resistance, this is a good signal that we're likely to see the risk-on attitude continue.
TOTAL3 1D Timeframe:
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