Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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TLDR:

• Macro data aligns; Inflation remains in the high-2% range, matching forecasts.
• Fed on hold; Stable unemployment and above-target inflation likely delay rate cuts.
• No crypto catalyst; Upside will need new Fed direction or a turn in inflation.
• BTC downside risk; Price could retest $80k–$83k before high-conviction long.

The Latest Macro Data

• GDP Growth Rate Q3: Forecast 4.3%, Actual 4.4%
• Core PCE MoM November: Forecast 0.2%, Actual 0.2%
• Core PCE YoY November: Forecast 2.8%, Actual 2.8%
• PCE MoM November: Forecast 0.2%, Actual 0.2%
• PCE YoY November: Forecast 2.8%, Actual 2.8%
• Personal Spending MoM November: Forecast 0.5%, Actual 0.5%
• Personal Income MoM November: Forecast 0.4%, Actual 0.3%

The data comes in showing inflation is still in the high 2's (high 2 per cent) with incomes remaining high, which is supporting strong consumer spending.

What Does This Mean?

With inflation remaining in the high 2's, this doesn't change much on the macro front. Inflation is still above target (the Feds 2.0% mandated target), and the most recent Unemployment Rate was 4.4%. This gives the Fed further room to hold rates steady, which is probably the case for the next two meetings - late-January and mid-March.

Market pricing currently suggests limited scope for additional rate cuts under the current Fed leadership. As a result, sustained risk-asset upside may require either a shift in inflation dynamics, weaker labour data, or clearer forward guidance pointing toward renewed easing. While future Fed leadership could influence expectations, the timing and policy stance of any transition remain uncertain.

With this backdrop, it's likely that any meaningful upside in crypto won't come until Powell is replaced, and the market begins pricing in more cuts again - which we expect, but just not in the short-term. Now, that doesn't have to mean that the market can't start getting excited about cuts again until Powell leaves - the market will want to hear from the new Fed Chair (whoever that might be), that they plan on cutting rates as soon as they take over in mid-May 2026, and the market will get excited about this and begin to front-run that before May.

Market Reaction:

Going into the print, Bitcoin was trying to rebound from $88k into the low $89k's. Upon the print, prices have mostly remained unchanged as the data is essentially in line with the forecasts.

In TradFi, we have seen a slight pullback in the indexes (S&P, Nasdaq and Russell). This is likely the re-emphasis of the Fed remaining 'on pause' over the next 1-2 meetings.

Our View?

Bitcoin is testing the bottom border of its bear flag, and whilst a small relief rally is possible, to say $92,000 to $92,500 area, we would still expect the price to break down from this bear flag, and as a minimum, retest the local lows at $85k.

However, we're of the view that price can break below that and retest the low $80k's. But that would potentially see the price put in a bullish divergence and close to oversold territory. In our view, that seems like the next major opportunity = Long in the low $80k's should the bullish divergence be confirmed. We will, however, assess the metrics at the time (should it happen), to confirm the trade.

BTC Bear Flag:

Traders can play a Short from $93k-$94k down to $85k, should they be given the entry. Or, they can remain patient and look for price to break down, retest the low $80k's, and long there - should a bullish divergence be confirmed.

Cryptonary’s Take:

Price levels come in as expected in the high 2 per cent. This essentially keeps the Fed on hold for at least the next 2 meetings (late-January and mid-March meetings).

With this backdrop, we're of the view that this isn't supportive for Crypto, and therefore, our analysis suggests that we'll see further downside in the coming weeks with a BTC target of $80k-$83k. At that point in time, should a bullish divergence confirm and the metrics be constructive, we'll look to buy Spot BTC for a move higher.