Market Pulse: Jobs Data Surges, Rate Cut Odds Recede
Nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations, sending traders scrambling to reprice rate cut timelines. With the Fed sidelined, crypto faces near-term liquidity headwinds. Here’s what matters for BTC in this dynamic setup...
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Jobs Data is OUT
- Non Farm Payrolls: Forecast 70k, Actual 130k
- Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.4%, Actual 4.3%
What This Means?
This is a positive print for markets, but it likely keeps rate cuts pushed out. With inflation in the mid-2 percent and the unemployment rate declining (a notable surprise), the Fed will be in no rush to cut. Markets are now pricing the next rate cut to come in July, rather than June.This may not be supportive for risk assets, particularly Crypto, in the immediate term. Crypto is a risk asset that is sensitive to liquidity, and fewer rate cuts means less liquidity, meaning unsupportive for risk assets.
However, this print (strength in the labour market) should reduce the chance of a meaningful pullback in the equity market, and that in itself might help Crypto to hold its local lows in the immediate term. The likelihood is that Crypto just remains range-bound in the immediate term.
Market Reaction:
Going into the print, Crypto was down slightly (down from $70k to $67k) whilst TradFi indexes have been attempting to rebound this week, although they were finding resistance yesterday.Upon this labour market data release, equity indexes have moved higher, led by outperformance on the Russell 2000. Bitcoin has rebounded very slightly from $66,900 to $67,300. Should we see a positive US trading session today, that may help Bitcoin to push back to $70k. However, we're not expecting any push up to $74k-$78k in the immediate term.
Our View?
We expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $66k and $71k, however, should price break out above $71k, then $74k would come into play - but, this isn't our base case.Our Base Case: is for Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $66k and $70k in the immediate term. However, we expect the next move to be a move down, and for Bitcoin to break below $66k, and retest $60k.
Our Strategy: an overweight to cash that we'll look to deploy 80% (of that cash) should Bitcoin break lower and reach the $50k-$63k zone. That's where we'd have layered buy orders with a view to holding for the long-term.
Cryptonary’s Take:
The jobs data comes in stronger than the forecasts, and far stronger than what the market expected following Kevin Hassett's comments yesterday. But, stronger data prices the next rate cut further out with the market now pricing for the next cut in July rather than June.We remain of the view that Bitcoin and Crypto will stay range-bound, and we're not anticipating Bitcoin to break above $71k in the immediate term. Our base case is that price will visit the $50k-$63k zone, which is a deep value area for price, and therefore we'll become confident buyers of Bitcoin again then.
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