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The data comes out with numbers lower than forecasted. This is a slight weakening in the labour market. And this slightly increases the odds of bring an Interest Rate cut further forward. We'd need to see this data weaken further over the coming months though, and we'd need to see the Unemployment Rate increase to 4.4% at a minimum.
- Non Farm Payrolls: Forecast 110k, Actual 73k
- Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.2%, Actual 4.2%
- Short-Term: The market potentially pops slightly higher, but that's probably it. Chances are we see the market consolidate further.
- Market Reaction Since: A small move higher. We're not sure it lasts.
- How To Position: Should we get a further pullback, we'd put the $ on the side back to work and into positions.
Cryptonary's Take: This increases the chances of Interest Rate cuts, which is why the market has moved slightly higher, but we'd need to see this trend continue over the next few prints to bring the FED to the Interest Rate cutting table. However, September is still unlikely, but it increases the chances of an October Interest Rate cut.
The market potentially moves up a tiny amount here, but that move likely gets sold into over the next few weeks.
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