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Market Updates

Market Pulse: Labour Market Data Soft, Upside Expected for BTC

Published: Sep 5, 2025
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Payrolls came in weak while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, a mixed but market-friendly print. With September cuts still on the table, the setup remains constructive, though BTC likely chops before any push higher.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.


Labour Market Data Dropped

The labour market data has come out inline.
  • Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus 75k, Actual 22k
  • Unemployment Rate: Consensus 4.3%, Actual 4.3%
The data comes out soft, weaker Payrolls, but the Unemployment Rate stays relatively low at 4.3%. A somewhat strange print here. Because the Unemployment Rate has remained low (ish), that'll allow the FED to cut at the September Meeting, but we don't see a 50bps cut here, so we remain risk-on here.

So What‘s Our Positioning From Here?

We remained positioned, and we're expecting some upside in the immediate term following this labour market print that just about gives markets a 'Goldilocks' environment. Really tricky read on this, so we'll provide another update in the coming hour or two, after we see how price action settles.

We'd expect BTC to chop around here, but we may see a bit of upside.

BTC:

BTC/USD Chart
This is a quick post-numbers update. We will give our 'Closing Thoughts' update in the next hour or so as we see how the market reacts to this print.

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