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Inflation Data is OUT
- Core Inflation MoM: Forecast 0.2%, Actual 0.2%
- Core Inflation YoY: Forecast 2.9%, Actual 2.9%
- Inflation MoM: Forecast 0.3%, Actual 0.3%
- Inflation YoY: Forecast 2.6%, Actual 2.7%
The data comes in hotter than prior months, but in line with the forecasts. This is the first data set where we're seeing the effects of tariffs creep into the data. Overall this isn't too bad, especially seeing Core come in in line.
Short-Term: The market potentially remains unchanged or very slightly higher.
Market Reaction Since: The market has moved up very slightly and perhaps we see a positive next few days, although, we're not sure that BTC retests all-time highs here.
How To Position: We're well positioned now, having added to positions over the last 1-2 months. We'll continue to hold those positions.
BTC: We probably don't retest all-time highs off the back of this data, but the data is relatively positive, so price can remain in the $115k to $123k range here. This is good though. A period of consolidation would be good for price.
Cryptonary's Take
Tariff effects are coming through, but not in a hugely drastic way. Overall, the market will likely take this positively, and therefore we remain constructive on the market. This strengthens our view that we have a positive market over the coming quarters.
