Market Pulse: Payrolls Data Smash Expectations

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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TLDR:

• Payrolls beat expectations; 119k vs consensus 50k, Unemployment at 4.4%.
• December cut odds drop; Data is over two months old, uncertainty lingers. Accumulation zones are held.
• More analysis coming; Friday’s Market Update will cover catalysts and flows.

Latest Data

• Non Farm Payrolls: Forecast 50k, Actual 119k
• Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.3%, Actual 4.4%

September Nonfarm payrolls came in at 119k against consensus expectations of 50k, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. This is a stronger print (on the Payrolls) than expected, and therefore it’s likely that a December interest rate cut gets priced out by the market - no cut in Dec. But, doves (Fed members who are in support of cutting rates) will argue that the Fed should cut due to an increasing Unemployment Rate. We still expect no cut in December, but for the Fed to then cut again in January.

This data covers a payroll period from over two months ago, so it’s dated data. The key issue remains: October household data was lost to the government shutdown, and November’s jobs report releases December 16th - six days after the Fed’s December 9th-10th meeting.

The Fed will make its final 2025 policy decision without October or November’s Jobs data. December cut odds remain around 43% - essentially a coin flip. This uncertainty continues through the year-end.

BTC traded just shy of $92k ahead of the release, with price moving up just slightly upon the release.

Positioning

Despite the stronger-than-expected print, this data remains over 2 months old. We maintain our accumulation zone of $85k-$93k, though any weakness toward the lower end of that range ($85k-$88k) would represent improved value given reduced odds of a December cut. Our Q1 2026 thesis remains intact, contingent on October and November data (releasing December onwards) showing labour market weakness, that the Fed can then restart cutting interest rates again.

Cryptonary’s Take

Despite today’s stronger print, this data remains over two months old. The key question for December cut odds will be October and November data, which releases December 6th onwards - just days before the Fed’s meeting. Today’s number doesn’t resolve that uncertainty. We maintain our $85k-$93k accumulation zone, though we’d be more aggressive toward the lower end ($85k-$88k) if weakness materialises. Our Q1 2026 thesis depends on upcoming data showing labour market softening. If October and November confirm strength, we’ll reassess.

Friday’s Market Update will provide comprehensive analysis of on-chain metrics, institutional flows, and December’s catalyst sequence (ADP December 3rd, jobs December 6th, FOMC December 9-10th).