Market Pulse - Post FED Meeting Thoughts

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

The FED left Interest Rates unchanged. Powell noted that the FED is well positioned to respond to any weakness, and he suggests that he expects that there will be i.e., inflation to go higher, and unemployment to rise, due to the tariff policy and the uncertainty around it. It does seem that Powell and the FED don't think they'll be cutting soon, at least not the June FED Meeting, so we can most likely rule that Meeting out.

Overall, Powell didn't commit to anything, but his tone suggests a cautious (and therefore likely hawkish) bias over the coming months. But of course, this is dependent on the data. It seems that Powell and the FED will react "when" the labour market meaningfully deteriorates. That's likely to be at least a few months, meaning the first cut probably comes in September.

• Short-Term: Probably not much reaction, but our strong feeling is that we're either at, or very close to a market top.
• Market Reaction Since: Again, we're probably close to a local top. We'd expect markets to be significantly lower in 1-2 month's time.
• How To Position: We're still sitting in cash, and the chances are, we're not deploying in the coming week or two. We're expecting it to take another 1-2 months, but we expect the weakness to show up and be priced in by then.

We'll look to buy that weakness. We remain confident that we're on the right side of this. Let's Go!!!

BTC: