Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

---

Peace Talks Set For Saturday

This Saturday, peace talks between the US and Iran are set to take place with the hope that a deal can be reached to end the war. However, there are reports coming out of Iran that the Iranian delegation has not left for Islamabad (place where the talks will be held), and they're threatening to not show up to negotiations if the Israeli bombing on Lebanon continues.

Alongside this, there are reports that the Strait of Hormuz is being tolled by the Iranians, with President Trump stating that 'they better not, and if they are, to stop now', about the Iranians tolling the Strait. The President also said that traffic through the Strait had picked up, however, the Iranians suggested that they'd only allow 15 ships per day to pass through the Strait during the ceasefire.

The above, along with missiles striking the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia (which transports 7 million barrels of oil per day) all suggests that significant components of this ceasefire has been broken. President Trump however is 'optimistic' that a lasting deal can be done.

Brent Crude Oil remains elevated at $98 despite pulling back from the recent highs of $115.

Brent Crude Oil

But risk assets have seen remarkable rallies higher, spurred by the potential de-escalation between Iran and the US, alongside CTA positioning having a large net Short exposure.

CTA Positioning in US Equities

This has set up for a low volume squeeze in the S&P, bringing price well back into the prior range, with price now just 2.6% away from all-time highs.

S&P500 1D Chart

However, we do note that on Thursday, the S&P 500 gapped up above its 50D and 200D moving averages. The S&P has only done this 4 times since 1950, with the average 3-month move that follows being -9.51%. Historically, this move in the S&P has been a relief rally that rolls over.

But, Bitcoin has held up well, and although still range-bound, it is now trading at the top of its range at $72k.

Bitcoin 1D Chart

Is Bitcoin Setting Up For A Relief Rally?

Bitcoin has reclaimed its horizontal resistance in the low $71k's, although it remains in its rising wedge pattern. However, zoomed out, Funding Rates have been negative and when we have seen sustained negative Funding Rates, historically this has allowed Bitcoin to bounce more materially. Bitcoin Negative Funding Rates

Alongside this, the Realised Profit metric looks to have bottomed in the short-term i.e., investors aren't willing to book profits here, and will wait for higher prices. This alleviates sell-side pressure.

Bitcoin Realised Profit Breakdown By Age

Paired with, the Realised Losses are falling - investors are unwilling to lock in losses at these prices.

Bitcoin Realised Losses

All the above does potentially set up for a rally in risk assets over the coming days/weeks - we expect closer to days rather than weeks. However, it'll likely be very dependent on Iran and the US coming to a deal and the war ending, also without the ceasefire breaking.

Should we see Bitcoin get a rally, we expect it to lose steam in the high $70k's - we'd be surprised to see the $80k level be breached, particularly as there are a plethora of key on-chain cost basis (True Market Mean, and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis) in that region that should act as resistance for prices.

We would also view a potential rally to be driven off of geopolitical de-escalation and bearish (or rather lack of bullish) positioning.

However, the macro picture remains unsupportive, which is why we don't expect a rally to be meaningfully sustained should we see Bitcoin break out of its range to the upside.

In recent weeks, we've seen higher inflation and weaker economic growth. This puts the Fed's dual mandates directly in tension. Just yesterday (Thursday 9th April), we saw GDP for Q4 2025 come in at 0.5%, far below the 4.4% Q3 figure. Meanwhile Personal Income surprised to the downside (-0.1%), implying a decrease in wages. However, Personal Spending remained resilient printing 0.5%. So whilst there are some cracks in the economy, particularly in the labour market which is running at an average of 16k jobs added each month, the Fed are unable to cut rates due to inflation.

Yesterday, we got PCE figures, which is February's data. Yes, pre-Iran/US war. Both the YoY figures came out at 2.8% (Headline) and 3.0% (Core), and we should only expect this to increase in the coming months considering oil is up more than 35% since late-February.

We saw this in today's data.

An hour ago, March's data was released.

• Core Inflation MoM: 0.2% (below estimates)
• Core Inflation YoY: 2.6% (below estimates)
• Inflation Rate MoM: 0.9% (in line with estimates)
• Inflation Rate YoY: 3.3% (in line with estimates)

Risk assets traded mostly unchanged on this print as higher headline inflation was expected due to higher oil prices because of the war in the Middle East.

Core comes in softer, however headline inflation comes in drastically higher, driven by higher oil prices. This will prohibit the Fed from cutting interest rates in the near-term. Our base case is that the Fed will still cut rates in 2026. We're expecting 1 cut in Q4 2026, with several more cuts in early 2027.

Cryptonary's Take

In the short-term, we expect Bitcoin to rally to the $76k-$78k region, driven by a US-Iran deal (ending the war), and sidelined capital chasing the move higher.

However in our view, the macro backdrop remains poor. We have:

- rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future.

- higher inflation in the months to come.

- poor financial market liquidity conditions.

All of the above suggests that we shouldn't expect a sustained rally beyond the short-term and hence we see a potential move higher for Bitcoin into the mid-to-late $70k's as a relief rally within a bear market.

It remains our base case that Bitcoin revisits the $60k-$63k zone in the coming months, whilst we still expect Bitcoin to print in the $50k's sometime in the middle of this year. A relief rally now doesn't change our base case of $50k-$63k being tested again.