Market uncertainty hits DOGE, WIF, SPX, and POPCAT
As meme coins face turbulence, DOGE remains under key resistance, WIF approaches $0.46, and SPX rejects $0.76. Can these assets hold, or is there more downside ahead? Let’s break down the latest crypto price action.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
DOGE:
- Since DOGE wicked into the support zone of $0.20 to $0.22, it has rebounded and it has been range bound between $0.24 and $0.26.
- Price is currently beneath the main structure, and in order for price to become structurally bullish again, it would need to reclaim back above $0.30 horizontal resistance, which we don't see as likely in the short or medium term.
- Price is currently trying to break out of a local downtrend line, but it is running into the local horizontal resistance of $0.266.
- The RSI is coming off of oversold territory and it is now above its moving average. This may allow for a move higher.
- Next Support: $0.22
- Next Resistance: $0.26
- Direction: Bearish
- Upside Target: $0.30
- Downside Target: $0.22
Cryptonary's take
Unless we can see a comfortable reclaim of the local horizontal resistance of $0.266, which we're not expecting. Then, we'll likely see $0.22 retested again. For now, DOGE doesn't look attractive to us here, and in the immediate term, we are expecting a retest of $0.24, and probably a retest of the main horizontal level at $0.22.WIF:
- For WIF today, we've zoomed out and we're using the 3D timeframe, as we've essentially needed to zoom out to identify prior price levels that we can now look to for new supports.
- WIF has broken all of the higher levels ($1.40, $1.60 etc), and between $0.46 and $1.40, there aren't any real levels of support. Meaning, that if WIF broke $1.40, it was possible that a move straight down to $0.46 was on the cards, and this is what we've seen.
- The next major support for WIF is at $0.46, this would likely be a real area where WIF could put in a more meaningful bounce from.
- The RSI on the Daily is extremely oversold, and we're now seeing that the 3D timeframe has also entered oversold territory as well. This may open the door for a bounce soon.
- Next Support: $0.46
- Next Resistance: $1.10
- Direction: Bearish/Neutral
- Upside Target: $0.80
- Downside Target: $0.46
Cryptonary's take
It's possible that WIF has another 10-20% downside (until $0.46), where it might then be able to finally put in a more meaningful bounce. If a bounce (relief rally) is given, and you haven't yet de-risked out of WIF, we'd suggest using bounces to sell your position down.Whilst we're in a risk-off environment, it doesn't make sense to hold meme and it's possible that the novelty of WIF, POP and SPX will have worn off by the time a risk-on environment returns.
At that point, the more attractive plays will likely be new picks ie, whatever is the new, and hot meta at that time. We'd therefore suggest taking the relief bounces in WIF to reduce your exposure if you're still holding WIF.
POPCAT:
- Like WIF POPCAT has moved into the old ranges from early 2024.
- Price is attempting a breakout of the red downtrend line, whilst the RSI downtrend line is also seeing a potential breakout.
- POPCAT can likely use the $0.23 horizontal support as support going forward.
- There is a local horizontal resistance at $0.32 and the major horizontal resistance is at $0.40.
- On the Daily timeframe, the RSI is breaking out of the local downtrend, and it's above its moving average. However, on the 3D timeframe, the RSI has bounced from oversold territory into its moving average, whilst it also remains in its downtrend.
- Next Support: $0.23
- Next Resistance: $0.32 (then $0.40)
- Direction: Neutral
- Upside Target: $0.40
- Downside Target: $0.15
Cryptonary's take
For POPCAT, it's the same story as WIR If you haven't de-risked already, relief rallies are for selling into, whether that be $0.32 or $0.40 (although we're not confident on $0.40 in the short-term).Again, like WIF, by the time the risk-on environment returns there may be newer and more attractive opportunities, and plays that we might pull the trigger on rather than rebuying WIF, POPCAT, and SPX.
SPX:
- SPX remains in its longer-term downtrend, like most memes.
- Currently, the rice is butting up into the horizontal resistance of $0.76, and the price is rejecting from there (so far). Beyond $0.76, the next major horizontal resistance is at $0.92.
- $0.56 remains the key level of support that the price will need to hold above.
- A break below $0.56, would potentially see SPX revisit $0.20.
- We're keeping tabs on the volumes, a declining volume usually sees the price move lower.
- Next Support: $0.56
- Next Resistance: $0.76 (then $0.92)
- Direction: Neutral/Bearish
- Upside Target: $0.92
- Downside Target: $0.56
Cryptonary's take
Price is now meaningfully below the levels it was at when we suggested de-risking from SPX a few weeks back.SPX is now range bound between $0.56 and $0.76. If the price can break out of $0.76 (we're not sure we expect it to), then a move into $0.92, would potentially set up a really attractive opportunity to Short. We would also, of course, suggest de-risking into both $0.76 and $0.92 (assuming it reaches $0.92).
Strategy breakdown
In the last months, we've seen all memes (bar the odd exception), really experience a liquidity suck and the general trend has been down, and aggressively down. This is normal though for the asset that's at the furthest end of the risk curve when you go through a risk-off environment.But, thinking ahead, when the market does return back to a risk-on environment, where would we look to deploy? Probably still Meme's. I can name multiple memes that have pulled 100x's, whereas Alts, I don't know of any that have performed really well, let alone have pulled 100x's. So, with the gambling part of the portfolio, when we return back to a risk-on environment, I still expect Memecoins to be the sector where the hot ball of money goes.
However, when this happens, I think I'll personally look to buy new hot sector plays (whatever the new hot memecoin narrative at the time), rather than the 2024 plays eg, WIF, POP, SPX. It's possible that when a risk-on environment returns, the 2024 plays, may have lost their novelty by then, and therefore, I'll be targeting the new shiny thing that the market is excited about, and believes can 20, 50, 100x.
It'll be our job to find these plays again. And, our track record is solid. WIF, POPCAT and SPX, all did more than 100x returns, so when the market returns to a risk-on environment again, you best believe that we're the team that'll find those next hot plays again that can pull the crazy multiples.
Until then, we sit tight and remain patient.
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