Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Topics covered:

• A Weekend of Whip-Sawing Between the US and Iran.
• Bitcoin Positioning and What To Look For.
• Cryptonary's Take.

A Weekend of Whip-Sawing Between the US and Iran

Last Thursday, risk assets were buoyed by positive rhetoric from President Trump regarding the Iran war. President Trump said that the two sides were 'very close' to a deal, and that Iran had agreed to 'almost everything'. Markets pushed higher on this with Bitcoin trading from the mid $73k's early Thursday, then into the $78k's on Friday. This was fuelled by President Trump and the Iranians opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Strait was 'closed' again by the Iranians just a day later as they were unhappy that, despite their re-opening the Strait, the US maintained their blockade on Iran.

Risk assets pulled back following this, with Bitcoin locally topping into $78k before trading into the $73k's by Sunday.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that US negotiators would head back to Islamabad, Pakistan, for a second round of negotiations with the Iranians. However, the Iranians rejected the second round of peace talks. But, US negotiators are heading to Islamabad, so we'd expect that Iranian negotiators will turn up; the US negotiators wouldn't be making the trip. Negotiations, if they're to happen, are expected to happen this coming Wednesday. The weekend came with more threats to the Iranians from the US President over social media, where he said that this was the Iranians 'last chance' and that the US could 'go back to bombing'.

Meanwhile, there were escalations in the Strait. The US fired upon, intercepted, and then seized an Iranian ship which had attempted to travel through the US blockade. This was followed by the Iranians launching a drone attack on a US naval ship.

Ultimately, it's a mess. It might be that this is an escalation to get further leverage in the upcoming negotiations. In our view, if negotiations had completely broken down, we'd expect to see more heated rhetoric from both sides, so we still expect negotiations to happen this week, and the potential 'green light' for them to be President Trump dropping the US blockade.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket still have the odds of a meeting (between the US and Iran) at a 75% likelihood by this Wednesday (22nd). This Wednesday’s date is important as it marks the end of the ceasefire. It’s possible President Trump just extends the deadline should talks be progressing, but for now, this Wednesday is the key date as it marks the deadline for the ceasefire.

Polymarket Odds of Iran-US Diplomatic Meeting

Our base view is that there will be negotiations between the US and Iran this week (likely on Wednesday), with this potentially being catalysed by President Trump removing the blockade on Iran. The blockade is putting increasing pressure on the Iranians economically - they may soon have to significantly decrease their oil production due to overcapacity, as they're not able to export it (because of the blockade). This should be what brings the Iranians to the negotiating table, and potentially even means the Iranians make some concessions in the negotiations in order to achieve a deal.

Positive talks this week could spur risk assets further in the immediate term (this next week). Should a deal, or a framework for a deal, be done between the US and Iran, that could be what pushes Bitcoin into the $80k level.

On the other hand, the bear case is quite simple. Negotiations would have to fail, and there would be a return to fighting. Risk assets would likely sell off meaningfully, whilst commodities, particularly oil, would be bid. Oil is up 4% plus today alone.

But, should our base case play out, then $80k this week is possible.

Bitcoin Positioning and What To Look For

Firstly, Funding Rates remain negative on all major exchanges except for HyperLiquid, and this is now the longest negative Funding streak since post-FTX 2022 (46 consecutive days per Glassnode). That’s a classic, ‘crowded Short’ regime. The flip side: a dense cluster of short liquidations sits between $80k and $85k. If a deal catalyst breaks $80k, the forced buying could produce a violent squeeze - which is exactly why the $78k-$82k zone matters.

Bitcoin Funding Rates Across Major Exchanges

Meanwhile, the ETFs have been net buyers over the last week, with last Friday seeing the biggest inflow day since January 14th - although January 14th was the local top at $97k that then saw price trade into $60k just three weeks later.

Bitcoin ETF Flows

Alongside this, Bitcoin Dominance is once again at its range highs (excluding the deviations), a range that has remained intact since August 2025. Should Bitcoin Dominance reject into 60%, and move lower, this would likely see Crypto as a whole rally, i.e., not just Bitcoin but other coins.

Bitcoin Dominance 1D Chart

Positioning suggests that a rally into $78k-$80k can happen, although it'll likely need the catalyst of a deal or a framework for a deal between the US and Iran in order to get that move higher.

If that move happens, we wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin locally top on this move i.e., a move into $78k-$80k as this matches key on-chain resistance levels, whilst the announcement of a deal (between the US and Iran) may be a 'sell the news' event, that then sees price fall back below $70k and head to new lows.

Over the coming months (1-2 quarters), we see something like the below as the potential path for Bitcoin.

Potential Path for BTC Over the Coming Months

Cryptonary's Take

Despite this rally, and what we view as a relief rally, our conviction for sub-$60k prices has not wavered. The macro conditions aren't favourable. Interest rates are expected to remain elevated, due to higher oil prices, meaning the Fed won't be able to deliver the cuts that Crypto markets likely need. Oil is +4% today alone, which is exactly the kind of move that keeps the Fed sidelined even as economic data softens.

Should the price move into $80k this week on positive US-Iran news, we may even view it as a Shorting opportunity. However, we'd need to see weak Spot buying, alongside a bearish positioning reset, i.e., Funding Rates reset. We'll update further on this this week.

For now, our view remains the same: this is a relief rally that we expect to peak between $78k and $82k, for prices to then pull back into the $60k level sometime in Q3, maybe even late Q2. We remain patient, and we'll look to accumulate a retest of the lows and/or new lows (sub-$60k). We remain convinced in this view - no change.

Key Dates Ahead:

• 22nd April: Ceasefire Deadline - this is a hard deadline for now, although it’s possible that President Trump extends it.
• 29th April: Fed Meeting

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. Cryptonary is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other financial regulatory body. Nothing in this publication constitutes a personal recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or hold any virtual asset. Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. You can lose all invested amounts and do not benefit from any form of financial protection. Past performance does not indicate future results.