This content is for informational and educational purposes only. Cryptonary is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other financial regulatory body. Nothing in this publication constitutes a personal recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or hold any virtual asset. Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. You can lose all invested amounts and do not benefit from any form of financial protection. Past performance does not indicate future results. 

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Topics covered:

• Powell’s Last Fed Meeting as Chair.
• Big Tech Companies Report Positively Driving the Stock Indexes.
• What We’re Also Watching?
• Cryptonary’s Take.

Powell’s Last Fed Meeting as Chair

We’ll keep this section relatively light, as we covered it in greater detail in Wednesday’s ‘Market Pulse’ update. Therefore, we’ll give a quick TLDR of what happened, and then we’ll have a look at how that translates into markets. 

TLDR of the Fed Meeting: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, although it came with notable division - an 8-4 vote which included 3 hawkish dissents, this was the most dissents at a Fed Meeting since 1992. Powell and the Fed noted an attentiveness to both sides of their mandate given the current geopolitical backdrop amid higher oil prices, although Powell considers current policy to be ‘appropriate’. Lastly, Powell stated that he would remain on the committee, although stepping down as Chairman, until the Department of Justice’s investigation is ‘final’. The reason for this is that Powell wants to maintain some leverage should the Trump administration continue their legal attacks on him. Powell made it very clear that if this wasn’t going on, he’d be looking to resign from the Fed altogether (once his term as Chair ends) and retire. Markets will now digest the idea that Powell remaining on the Fed might undermine new Chairman Warsh’s authority, and this may complicate Fed forward guidance in the future. However, Powell did say that he would be a non-speaking (publicly) Fed Governor, and that he knows how difficult it can be for the Chair to ‘build a consensus’ amongst Governors and therefore he’ll do what he can to aid new Chair Warsh. This didn’t move markets too significantly, however, markets did react in a risk-off fashion following the 3 hawkish dissents. On Polymarket, the odds of ‘no rate cuts’ in 2026 shot up from 40.4% pre-meeting, to 57.8% today. Meanwhile, the odds of cuts (be it 1 cut, 2 cuts, or 3 cuts) all fell.

Odds of Rate Cuts Fall Following 3 Hawkish Dissents

This was bearish for risk assets, with Bitcoin selling off by 2.6% on the day.

Big Tech Companies Report Positively Driving the Stock Indexes

We also covered the Big Tech earnings in Wednesday’s ‘Market Pulse’ report. So, we’ll once again give a TLDR of the earnings, and then we’ll dive more into the stock reactions, which will then lead us on to Bitcoin’s reactions and why it has been reacting differently. 

In the last 48 hours, 5 Big Tech companies reported their earnings; Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple. All 5 beat expectations, with Alphabet and Amazon’s stock price being rewarded (moving higher), however, Meta closed -8.55% on the capex hike (raised 2026 capex guide by $10bn to $125-145bn), the cleanest expression of investor capex fatigue this cycle. Despite the positive earnings, some companies' share prices aren’t rewarded over concerns of massive capital expenditure, which is pressuring near-term margins and valuations. The AI boom (led by Big Tech companies and semi-conductors i.e., Nvidia) is why the stock indexes are at record highs, with these companies contributing approximately 75% of the 14% rally we’ve seen in the S&P 500 since the March 30th low. This (the AI boom and therefore Big Tech and semi-conductor companies) is what’s driving the stock indexes.

S&P 500’s 14% Rally Over The Last Month

Bitcoin (Crypto) however, isn’t being driven by the AI boom, it’s being driven by liquidity, or a lack of it at the moment. In recent weeks, financial market liquidity has picked up, which has helped Bitcoin rebound. However, the general trend for financial markets liquidity has been down since mid-Q4 2025, and Bitcoin’s performance has corresponded with that. However this week, we’ve begun to see the short-term trend (easing) reverse again i.e., a renewed tightening in financial conditions: the Dollar Index has remained mostly unchanged (over the last two weeks), but Bond Yields have moved higher, whilst the MOVE index (the Bond market volatility index) looks to have bottomed and is now moving up again.

US2Y Bond Yield Up Nearly 21bps Over The last 2 Weeks

The Move Index looks to have bottomed and is now moving higher - this is a tightening of financial conditions. Note, when the Move Index was declining from 115 to 65, this was a significant easing of financial conditions which brought Bond Yields down, and it supported the stock indexes moving higher. 

Move Index Bottomed? I.e., Renewed Tightening in Financial Conditions

It’s now possible that the trend is reversing again (from easing to tightening) and financial conditions are tightening again. Note, the major trend since mid-Q4 2025 has been liquidity and financial conditions tightening. In recent weeks, we saw that change to slight easing, we’re now likely at the start of a renewed tightening. 

This comes at an interesting inflection point as Bitcoin lies underneath a key horizontal resistance zone between $78k and $82 - which we have identified by looking at key on-chain cost basis which will act as resistance for price moving beyond - there are a cluster of these on-chain cost basis between $78k and $82k. 

Bitcoin Finds Resistance at Key On-Chain Cost Basis Levels

Alongside this, this week, Bitcoin ETFs have flipped to -$467m of outflows this week, breaking a 4-week streak of positive flows that totaled $1.9bn in April. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium has turned negative whilst Funding Rates have moved closer to neutral although they still remain slightly negative. We identified last week that the fundamentals that had driven the recent rally had begun to slow down. From this week's analysis, we can see that these fundamentals have changed in the opposite direction. 

Cryptonary’s Take

We can say that Bitcoin is at a key inflection point here as price is unable to clear above a key resistance level whilst the constructive fundamentals that drove this rally have now changed, with Bitcoin likely to have an uphill battle getting above those key cost basis - $78k-$82k. 

With the data we’re assessing, our conclusion remains the same: this is a relief rally, and this current rally has locally topped, or is very close to locally topping. An invalidation of our thesis would be Bitcoin closing a 3d candle above $82k, and for the rally to be supported by positive fundamentals i.e., Coinbase Premium returning, large net ETF inflows, and Shorts continuing to fire and getting liquidated. 

We’re continuing to watch developments in the Middle East as well, although it seems there’s room for escalation, the market doubts how much escalation there can actually be and therefore the market is increasingly in the mood of ‘moving on’ from this topic. 

Key Dates Ahead:

• May 8th: Labour market data. 

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. Cryptonary is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other financial regulatory body. Nothing in this publication constitutes a personal recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or hold any virtual asset. Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. You can lose all invested amounts and do not benefit from any form of financial protection. Past performance does not indicate future results.