Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Topics covered:

• Markets Move Up On Potential Ceasefire.
• Mechanics Behind Bitcoins Move.
• This Week's Key Data.
• Cryptonary's Take.

Markets Move Up On Potential Ceasefire

President Trump extended his Hormuz deadline to Tuesday April 7th, threatening to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges if the Strait remains closed. Despite this, the Iranians have rejected every ceasefire attempt, including the 'Islamabad Accord' drafted overnight with Pakistani officials - a framework for immediate Hormuz reopening and a 15-20 day ceasefire while negotiations proceed.

The Iranians are not interested in a ceasefire as they have "deep mistrust" of the Americans, and they suspect that the Americans are looking for a ceasefire so they can use that time to get more personnel and equipment into the region to then potentially launch some form of ground invasion.

President Trump has heaped pressure on the Iranians in recent days, threatening to "send them back to the stone age" and he had called Tuesday (7th), "Bridge Day and Power Plant Day", implying that the US would bomb key infrastructure inside Iran. Despite this, the Iranians have continued to reject ceasefire attempts saying that "no rational individual would support a ceasefire".

Polymarket has just a 3% chance that the US and Iran will agree to a ceasefire by April 7th - Trump's given deadline.

Polymarket Odds of a Ceasefire by April 7th

Going into the weekend, markets were relatively despondent, with Bitcoin trading in the $66k's. However, on Sunday night, Bitcoin swiftly moved up from $66k, into the $69k's on the news that US officials had been in negotiations with Pakistani officials "all night" to draft a plan to end the war. This was nicknamed the 'Islamabad Accord'. Direct messages had also been had between Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The plan entailed the immediate re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire lasting 15-20 days whilst officials from both sides would negotiate in-person, a full ending to the war, where the Iranians would get sanctions relief, and commit to no nuclear weapons.

However, as of Monday morning (ET), the Iranians once again rejected this proposal from Pakistani officials stating that Iran "would not accept deadlines or pressure". The Iranians are unlikely to sacrifice their two biggest negotiation chips (nuclear weapons, and re-opening the Strait) just for a temporary ceasefire.

Alongside this, the Wall Street Journal has reported that chances of a breakthrough over the Iran war (for a ceasefire) "remain slim". We can see this in the Polymarket odds above.

This is a rapidly moving situation, with developments coming out daily. Ultimately, a ceasefire looks unlikely, despite markets having reacted well this morning. It seems that market participants are trying to anticipate President Trump's de-escalation and an ending to the war, so we're seeing these relatively violent relief rallies when there's signs that a deal might be done between the Iranians and the Americans.

However, should a deal not be done, and it's looking unlikely, then markets are mis-priced here, and are likely to go lower, particularly if President Trump escalates with some form of 'boots on the ground' invasion. It seems that the 'Islamabad Accord' is a last ditch effort for a resolution before a potentially significant escalation.

Our View?

We remain cautious here. It seems that market participants are trying to anticipate a conclusion to the war and therefore trying to get Long. However, we don't see this as a wise strategy. We'd only become interested in buying again should prices trade into 'deep value levels' ($54k-$63k). Should we see a resolution to the war, then we'd expect a more significant relief rally. However, we're not sure that'd be worth trying to time, and then play.

Ultimately, financial conditions have tightened, with Fed rate cuts not coming anytime soon, whilst we're moving into a higher inflation period. This is unsupportive for risk assets, and therefore we prefer an overweighting to cash, regardless of whether the Iran/US war is resolved in the short-term. We believe it would just be a relief rally.

Mechanics Behind Bitcoin's Move

Yesterday, Bitcoin moved up from $66k, into the $69k's. This was driven by Shorts closing out, Longs being added and increased Spot buying, with the Coinbase Premium briefly going positive.

Bitcoin Mechanics Driving Yesterday's Move Higher

Over the coming days, for the move to sustain, we'll need to see the underlying drivers also sustain. That would mean Spot buying to continue, preferably with the Coinbase Premium remaining in positive territory.

Bitcoin remains in its rising wedge formation with price having bounced from the bottom border. However, the price is now at $69,500 and just shy of the major horizontal resistance in the low $71k's. Price remains range-bound, despite all the headline whip-sawing that we're getting.

Bitcoin Bouncing from the Bottom Border of its Rising Wedge

This Week's Key Data

This week's key data comes on Friday, whilst there's also data on Thursday that's worth watching.

On Thursday we have PCE. Headline YoY PCE is expected to come in unchanged at 2.8%, whilst the Core number YoY is expected to show a move down from 3.1% to 2.8%. However, this is February's data, and the Iran/US war has begun since then, so this data is out-dated and likely to be seen as such by the Fed and market participants i.e., the market is unlikely to react to it whether it's hot, soft or unchanged.

Friday's data however is more substantial. On Friday, we'll be receiving inflation and core inflation data. The YoY Core figure is expected to tick up to 2.7% from 2.5%, but the headline YoY inflation figure is expected to show a large increase to 3.4% from last months' 2.4%. This is due to higher oil prices because of the closed Strait of Hormuz.

We don't expect the market to have a significant reaction to this as a 'hotter' print is expected considering the price of Brent Crude Oil has increased by 56% since the end of February 2026.

Brent Crude Oil Price Increase since late-February

Markets will be expecting a series of 'hot' inflation prints to come in over the coming months, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain closed.

We're expecting a muted market reaction to this week's inflation data as a 'hot' print is expected, and our view is that the market is going to continue to be driven by US/Iran news headlines, rather than the economic data.

Cryptonary's Take

Crypto prices have bounced in the last 24 hours on potential ceasefire news, with gains being held despite the Iranians rejecting the ceasefire terms and instead seeking a full resolution to the war. Unfortunately, both sides (Iran and the US) still seem too far apart on a potential deal with both being unwilling to make the concessions that the other is asking.

We expect the war to escalate further in the coming days, and therefore we would fade the rally in risk assets that we're seeing today. Should Bitcoin reach the $71k area again, we'd view that as an area to de-risk (should you still be holding positions), unless price reaches $71k due to a resolution to the war. But should we see this, we wouldn't necessarily be buyers of the rally as we'd expect a rally to be relatively short-lived. We'd therefore view that rally as a Shorting opportunity at the end of the rally, should the price reach the mid-to-high $70k's.

Ultimately, our views haven't changed. This is a bear market, and we expect our framework levels to be hit - $50k-$63k, with the tighter range between $54k and $59k.

Should we see the war escalate, then we'd expect to see $60k (for example) reached in the near-term. Should there be a resolution to the war, then we'd expect a significant bear market relief rally, which would provide a Shorting opportunity for prices to then move back to sub-$60k by mid-year - we'd then be buyers of that zone. Either way, we don't expect to be buyers of Crypto in the short-term.

Key Dates Ahead

• April 10: CPI report.

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. Cryptonary is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other financial regulatory body. Nothing in this publication constitutes a personal recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or hold any virtual asset. Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. You can lose all invested amounts and do not benefit from any form of financial protection. Past performance does not indicate future results.