Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Topics covered:

• Equities Rip To New Highs.
• Bitcoin's Cautious Rally.
• US-Iran Talks Show Progress?
• Cryptonary's Take.

Equities Rip To New Highs

Markets are forward looking and they've re-priced higher off the optimism that a deal between the US and Iran will come - participants can't afford to wait for a deal to be done to buy back in or they risk missing the move. And that's exactly what we've seen this week.

Ultimately, corporate earnings are expected to remain positive with the AI names leading the charge. Nvidia and Micron make up 35% and 18% of the earnings growth for Q1 2026. Two companies are responsible for 53% of the earnings growth in Q1 2026. However, this is something participants can still get behind and hence we've seen the rally in the equity indexes this week. This has also been helped by CTA's buying $86b worth of equities this week - this is extremely aggressive buying (which is reflected in the chart below). CTA's are Commodity Trading Advisors - professional investment managers or firms that trade futures contracts.

CTA Buying At Record Highs

Going into this week, equities were heavily shorted, and with news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, buying came back in, and other participants have been forced to chase the rally. Bank analysts estimate that there is a further $70b of buying to come in over the next 4-5 trading sessions from CTA's. This could see the S&P 500 hit 7100, and possibly even 7200 by mid-week next week. This would likely precede a period of consolidation/pullback for equities moving into month-end.

Bitcoin's Cautious Rally

This week, Bitcoin has rallied from $70,700 on Monday, to $75,700 today (Friday morning, UK time). Price has been driven by a more sustained Spot bid (although not a huge one), and Shorts being squeezed out.

In the last fortnight, the Bitcoin ETFs have seen more inflow days, which have been larger in size in comparison to the net outflow days. However, they haven't been huge in terms of their size, at least not like what we saw at the peak of the last bear market rally at $97k back in mid-January 2026, and at the price all-time high back in early-October 2025.

Bitcoin ETFs Showing Modest Net Inflow Days

This size suggests modest buying, but without significant conviction.

This last weeks' bid was also supported by a positive Coinbase Premium, which has declined in the last day but the main thing is that it's still positive, indicating that there's greater demand for Bitcoin on US exchanges in comparison to the rest of the world. Historically, this is supportive of higher prices.

Coinbase Premium Remains Positive

However, the modest (in size) bid that has pushed Bitcoin's price higher, has also been aided by Shorts being squeezed out. We can see the bearish positioning, as the Funding Rates have been extremely negative - this means the market has been over confident to the downside, making those positions vulnerable to be squeezed.

Negative Funding Rates

Usually, when positioning is overly one-sided, that side becomes vulnerable to a squeeze. This is what's happened this week to Shorts, which have then been squeezed, and have had to buy back in to close their position out. This is shown in the below chart, where Short liquidations have been significantly greater than Long liquidations.

So whilst Bitcoin has been driven higher by a more sustained spot bid, Shorts being squeezed has also helped Bitcoin move higher over the last week.

Short Liquidations Far Outweigh Long Liquidations

Alongside the above, sentiment remains fearful. We can see this with the Fear & Greed index only showing a score of 21 (extreme fear). This is despite Bitcoin holding up at the range highs of $75k.

Fear & Greed Index

To add to this, the Options market shows a meaningful tilt towards Puts meaning that downside Puts (buying protection for potential downside price action) trade at a premium to Calls (buying demand for upside).

This is clear evidence that despite the market rallying, participants aren't overly excited about it, and they're arguably more cautious about the rally, and perhaps it can be said that they don't trust it. We can see this in that Spot positioning hasn't been overly bullish, sentiment is low, and downside protection has been heavily bought.

Bitcoin Options Put/Call Ratio

To conclude, the above suggests that this rally might be in a mid, or even, early phase i.e., it could go more meaningfully higher. This may result as disbelieving participants haven't believed that price can go north of $75k, see it go beyond $75k, and are then forced to chase (buying back in). That's the setup that the mechanics and the flows are telling us.

However, the above setup will battle with key on-chain resistances overhead that will potentially prevent Bitcoin from putting in a more meaningful rally.

In the below chart, we can see that the Bitcoin price now in the $75k's is just below key on-chain cost basis levels that should act as resistances for price. These are:

• 128D Moving Average @ $77,700
• True Market Mean Price @ $78,100
• Short-Term Holder Cost Basis @ $80,400

Bitcoin Key Cost Basis Models

From the above, the takeaway we have is that should Bitcoin breakout of $75k it might have a 'hated rally' that sees participants chase it higher. This would open the door for Bitcoin to retest some of its key on-chain cost basis that sit between $77,700 and $80,400.

Our view is that Bitcoin will break out above $75k. We expect a rally can reach $80k, driven by a light Spot bid, and Shorts being squeezed. However, we're not of the view that Bitcoin can reach $85k or higher. We expect it to reject into the $80k resistance.

US-Iran Talks Show Progress?

In the last 24 hours, we've seen multiple reports that the Iranians and the US are moving closer in negotiations with a potential 'memorandum of understanding' to be possibly signed in the coming 24 hours - reported by Reuters.

This would allow fighting to stop, and no longer under a ceasefire, whilst providing a longer period of time for 'technical details' to be worked out. A senior Gulf official has also suggested that President Trump is willing to make concessions in order for a deal to be done.

However, an Iranian official close to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has downplayed their willingness to hand over their enriched uranium.

The US-Iran war is still a developing situation despite the markets seeming willingness to have moved on from it. Whilst this is our base case too - that the war is likely done and a deal will be agreed - if there is a breakdown in negotiations, this would negatively impact risk assets and we'd expect a meaningful pull back off the back of that.

Cryptonary's Take

Bitcoin has consolidated at the $75k highs, and should a positive Spot bid be sustained, price can break out and test the key on-chain resistances between $78k and $80k. However, we're sceptical that price can move beyond that into the mid-$80k's as the Spot bid isn't currently substantial enough that it can drive price meaningfully beyond the key on-chain resistance levels.

We remain of the view that Bitcoin will break out but that this is a relief rally, where we expect price to return to the low-$60k's and even the $50k's in late Q2 or in Q3 2026.

This content is for informational and educational purposes only. Cryptonary is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other financial regulatory body. Nothing in this publication constitutes a personal recommendation or advice to buy, sell, or hold any virtual asset. Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. You can lose all invested amounts and do not benefit from any form of financial protection. Past performance does not indicate future results.