Market Update: Are New Lows About to Hit?
Pressure is building, fear is rising, and the chart is winding up for a decisive move. The question hanging over the entire market is unavoidable: are new lows about to hit? Before the next leg unfolds, here’s what you need to know, and what most traders won’t see until it’s too late...
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Topics covered:
- Market Prices a December Cut.
- Market's Reaction.
- Price Action Going Forward.
- Cryptonary's Take.
Market Prices A December Cut:
In the past week, we've seen the odds for a December rate cut increase from 35% to 85% following New York Fed President, John Williams, dovish comments. This has been further helped by rumours of Kevin Hassett becoming the front runner for the Fed Chair job, which Powell leaves in mid-May 2026. Hassett is seen as a "rate cutter", and even though changing the interest rate is a voted decision, a dovish Chair can help sway the board. Therefore, markets are pricing for a lower interest rate by year-end 2026.Market's Reaction:
This has resulted in:- Equity indexes up, particularly the Russell 2000 which is highly rate sensitive.
- Bond Yields down.
- BTC rebounding, but underperforming.
Price Action Going Forward:
We continue to see Crypto underperform, and the flows remain heavy - Long-Term Holders continuing to sell in size. This suggests to us that Majors can revisit their price lows, and potentially even break below their lows over the next week.However, should prices break down and form new lows, we'd be buyers of these levels. Our buy zones would be as follows:
- BTC: $78k-$82k
- ETH: $2,400-$2,700
- SOL: $110-$120
- HYPE: $24.50-$27.50
Cryptonary's Take:
The markets have seen a substantial pullback recently, particularly Crypto, with BTC putting in a 36% pullback from its all-time highs - the largest pullback of this bull market.Whilst we don't see it as a good risk/reward to be Short here, we are expecting prices to break down to new lows. However, we would view new price lows as buying opportunities. We have listed these buy zones above.
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