Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Executive Summary:

• US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ended Thursday without a deal but with enough progress to move to technical-level discussions in Vienna next week. Nvidia beat on all metrics ($68.1B revenue, $1.62 EPS, Q1 guide $78B) but the stock fell 5.5% – good news not being rewarded.
• We see this as a warning that the equity indexes are at risk of a pullback, which would pressure crypto.
• BTC wicked into $70k and got rejected; our base case remains range-bound with a grind toward $50k-$60k for high-conviction accumulation.

We're first going to cover what we see as the two biggest risks that could bring markets, and Crypto lower in the short-term:

1.  US-Iran tensions.
2. Equity index weakness.

Geneva Talks End Without a Deal - Technical Discussions Move to Vienna

On Thursday, the US and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. The US side was led by envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi representing Tehran.

Sources said that the US envoy demanded 'zero enrichment', and the dismantling of the three nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan) and for the enriched uranium to be transferred to Washington. However, sources have said that the Iranians aren't willing to engage on nuclear enrichment and are seeking relief in regards to the US imposed sanctions on the country.

In general, analysts aren't confident that a diplomatic outcome will be reached, which might result in strikes. However, the US engaging in war with Iran is currently unpopular in the US, all while the Trump administration run the risk that should they strike Iran, retaliatory strikes could be significant whilst the Iranians could close the Strait of Hormuz which would see the price of oil increase substantially, directly hurting the Trump administration's battle against inflation back in the US.

US strikes on Iran are possible, especially considering the US military buildup in the region is the largest since the US's 2003 invasion of Iraq. However, we don't expect strikes in the short-term, as both sides are voicing their want to do a deal, despite them being 'a ways apart' currently.

We're paying attention to the oil price. It's currently contained at local highs (just shy of $72), but should oil breakout to the upside, this would be a signal that military strikes are more likely.

Oil 1D Chart:

Despite the gaps, Iran’s Foreign Minister said the two sides were able to “identify the main elements of a possible agreement” and have agreed to move discussions to the technical level at the IAEA in Vienna next week. That’s the most concrete progress from any round so far. However, Iran continues to insist on maintaining some level of enrichment under IAEA supervision, whilst the US is demanding zero enrichment – so the core gap remains wide.

Nvidia Beats and Drops 5.5% - What That Signals for the Indexes

Towards the end of Q4 2025, global liquidity began to stall out, and since the beginning of Q4 2025, the equity indexes have remained range-bound with the S&P in a 7% range and the Nasdaq between a 10% range.

Global Liquidity:

S&P500 1D Chart:

Nasdaq 1D Chart:

Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of $68.1B (+73% YoY) vs consensus of $66.2B, and EPS of $1.62 vs $1.53 expected. Q1 guidance came in at $78B, well above the $72.6B consensus. It was a beat across every metric. Despite this, the stock wicked up into $204 in after-hours before fully reversing, and just two days later (today), price has moved down to $185 – a 5.5% drop and $260B in market value erased.

Nvidia 1D Chart:

When markets or stocks can't continue to move higher on good news, this is historically a negative sign, and this may be a warning that the indexes are at risk of a pullback in the short-term.

Bitcoin’s Price Pain Is Likely Done, but the Time Pain Is Just Starting

Following several months of downside for Bitcoin, it's probable that price is now in a period of consolidation that'll have the bulls celebrating on specific days and the bears celebrating on others, but the likelihood is that price is going to remain range-bound.

In our view, Bitcoin has gone through most of the 'price pain' (to the downside), and the next phase is likely to be the 'time pain' element of this bear market. We see Bitcoin as currently in a similar phase to the second half of 2022, and likely at the beginning of that phase. In 2022, price went through a -70% drawdown in the first half of the year, whilst the remainder of the year saw price chop, but putting in new lows (although lows that weren't significantly below the June low). In June 2022, Bitcoin was at its most oversold level, although price bottomed 5 months later. We see February 2026 (Bitcoin's $60k low, and its extreme oversold level) as similar to June 2022.

Bitcoin Bear Market Structure Chart:

In 2022, we saw that the extreme oversold reading was put in in June, even though price went lower later that month, again in September, and then again in November where price put in its final bottom. All of these new price lows happened, just with less volatility.

And that's what we're expecting again in the first half of 2026 - price to grind to new lows, but to not be as drastically oversold as it was in early-February.

This is why we maintain our long-term buying range between $50k-$60k. In that region, there are the following key on-chain levels that have always been tested in prior bear markets, these levels are:

• The Realised Price (currently at $54k).
• The Production Cost (currently at $61k).

Key Cost Basis Price Models - Realised Price:

Bitcoins Production Cost:

Historically, Bitcoin has rarely visited its Electrical Cost. It did so briefly in late-2018 and in March 2020 (Covid). Bitcoin's Electrical Cost currently sits at $49k, hence this is the price that sets a floor for the bottom band of our accumulation zone between $50k-$60k.

Cryptonary's Take

Price has recently wicked up toward $69.5k, but that level has been swiftly rejected with price now firmly back in the range at $66k. This supports our view that price is likely to chop within a range that ultimately puts in new lows, but with less volatility when those lows are put in.

We expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $50k-$55k as a floor, to $71k-$74k as a ceiling. A break above $71k is unlikely in our view, but should it happen, $75k becomes a possible target and would represent a level where risk becomes elevated for anyone still carrying full exposure.

Our high-conviction support zone sits at $50k-$60k, where Realised Price ($54k), Production Cost ($61k), and Electrical Cost ($49k) all cluster. These on-chain cost basis levels have been tested in every prior bear market and represent the area where long-term value has historically been the strongest.

Our proprietary risk framework, combining macro liquidity conditions, on-chain cost basis levels, and derivatives positioning, currently points to a risk-off environment. That stance holds until the data shifts.

Key Dates Ahead

• Mar 2: US-Iran Talks in Vienna
• Mar 6: US Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment
• Mar 12: CPI
• Mar 18–19: FOMC meeting

Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. You can lose all invested amounts and do not benefit from any form of financial protection. This is informational content, not financial advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.