Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Executive Summary:

The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but the Trump admin reimposed a 15% global tariff under Section 122 within 24 hours. Hot PCE (Core 3.0% YoY, 0.4% MoM) and soft GDP (1.4% vs 3.0% consensus) complicate the rate path. Nvidia earnings are due after the close on Wednesday. Iran–US talks are progressing, but the military buildup in the region remains. BTC is ranging between $65.5k and $71.5k, with the Sunday flush to sub-$65k having been absorbed. Our bias remains lower.

Topics covered:

• Last Week's Data & the Potential Impact on Rates.
• Trump Tariffs Overruled?
• Nvidia Earnings.
• US-Iran.
• Bitcoin.
• Cryptonary's Take.

Soft GDP Masks Hot Consumer Data as Fed Hike Talk Lingers

The more significant economic data last week was all on Friday: Core PCE and PCE, GDP, and Personal Income and Spending.

GDP came in softer than expected at 1.4% (the consensus was for closer to 3.0%), however this was mostly due to a government shutdown back in Q4 2025, which saw federal spending fall 16.6% and subtract roughly 1 percent point from headline growth. Personal Income and Personal Spending both came in strong at 0.3% and 0.4% respectively - in line with forecasts. The consumer is still earning and spending, which was in line with higher than expected Core PCE and PCE readings, with both the MoM and YoY figures coming in higher than forecasts.

Markets pulled back on this data as higher PCE decreases the chance of Fed cuts. However, the market then rallied off the back of the Supreme Court ruling against President Trump's tariffs. We'll get to this in the next section of the report.

Despite this week being light on economic data, we will be getting a plethora of Fed speak, with 12 scheduled speeches this week. Markets will have an eye on this now following last week's data and Fed Minutes which mentioned that there were a few hawkish members that would have been in favour of introducing a 2-sided risk to policy i.e., the potential for interest rate hikes. Although, Powell did steer clear of this in his press conference.

Rate hikes aren't our base case, we're still expecting 3 interest rate cuts this year, whilst the market is priced for just over 2 cuts.

The next major economic data release is Payrolls and Unemployment next Friday (6th March).

Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs, But Section 122 Is Already Live

Last Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs that President Trump imposed, were illegal. The IEEPA tariffs make up the majority of the tariffs that the Trump administration has imposed, so this court ruling saw the majority of tariffs lifted.

Markets, wrongly or rightly, celebrated this, with the S&P moving up 1% on Friday's session helping the index to close a green Weekly candle.

S&P500 1D Chart

However, the removal of tariffs resulted in a sell off in US Bonds (Yields up), although this was bought into (Yields down) - Bond market participants are aware that the Trump administration can put the tariffs back on and in other ways. For instance, look at the wick higher on the US 2Y Yield.

US 2Y Bond Yield 1D Chart

We wouldn't be surprised to see the US 2Y Yield fall back below 3.40% again this week.

But, President Trump can lean on alternative legislation such as Section 122 and Section 301, which are on much stronger legal footing, to reimpose his tariffs. And the Trump administration immediately did this following the Supreme Court's ruling to rule against the IEEPA tariffs - imposing a 10%, which by Saturday, became a 15% global tariff. These tariffs will only last for 150 days, but in the meantime, the Trump administration will work on other ways in which to impose these tariffs.

A study from Bloomberg showed that the Trump admin can reinstate the tariff rates, it'll just be under a different authority (Section 122, 301, and others) rather than IEEPA.

Section 122 could more than replace IEEPA tariff rates

Ultimately, tariffs are here to stay, and the market moving higher due to the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs last Friday is unlikely to result in more sustainable upside for the equity indexes.

The Supreme Court ruling doesn't change much, tariffs will go back on, and are here to stay.

Nvidia Earnings Wednesday: Market Looking Past Beats to Forward Guidance

Perhaps the highlight from a macro viewpoint this week is Nvidia earnings, due after the close on Wednesday. Consensus is for $65.6b in revenue (+65% YoY) and $1.52 EPS. Last quarter delivered $57b revenue and $1.30 EPS, both beats, but the stock is down roughly 15% from its October highs.

We’re expecting strong results, but that hasn’t always been rewarded. The market will be looking at forward guidance: Q1 FY27 revenue expectations sit at roughly $71b, and any signal on the Blackwell ramp, GB300 demand, and the China revenue outlook will drive the reaction more than the backward-looking print. Our lean is that this could be the catalyst that sees Nvidia trade lower, and potentially sees the broader equity indexes pull back. The bar for a positive reaction is high given beats are expected, whilst any softness in guidance could trigger a meaningful move down.

Iran-US Talks Progress but Military Buildup Keeps Risk Elevated

It seems that over the weekend there was recognition from both sides that concessions are on the table: the US on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, whilst the Iranians are also willing to do a broader deal. However, it remains the case that both sides are far apart, and the US continues to move a heavy military presence into the region.

It seems that over the weekend there was recognition that the US is willing to make concessions on the Iranians nuclear enrichment program, whilst the Iranians are also willing to do a broader deal. However, it remains the case that both sides are far apart in reaching an agreement with the US moving a heavy military presence into the region.

Whilst we do expect a deal to be done, the geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US remains the biggest short-term risk for markets. Should a war break out, that would be very risk off for markets, which would likely result in a 10% pull back for the equity indexes, and at least that for Bitcoin. On the other hand, a deal being done might result in some upside, but we expect that it'd be limited.

Despite there not being much economic data this week, the macro backdrop is busy: tariff uncertainty, rate path uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and Nvidia earnings all in the same week. Our view is that the next major move for markets is lower.

Bitcoin Holds $65k After Sunday Flush, Range Intact

Overnight Sunday, Bitcoin broke below its local range lows of $65,500, although that level has been recovered so far today. This late-Sunday night sell off was due to Spot market selling into a less liquid market. However, as Shorts piled into the break below $65k, they were quickly squeezed, with price returning back into the range.

Ultimately, the picture is the same. ETF flows are averaging small outflows. There isn’t yet a viable quantum solution. US liquidity has likely peaked, and is unlikely to improve until we see more interest rate cuts (and this assumes that the Fed’s balance sheet won’t be reduced at the same time). Chinese liquidity is increasing, but it’s going to gold rather than crypto, as the Chinese are banned from buying crypto.

For us, we don't expect there to be a more material improvement until we see more interest rate cuts. The market is pricing in 2 cuts this year, however, we're expecting 3. Our reasoning is that we expect the labour market to weaken and the Fed to come to its rescue - using rate cuts. Ultimately, inflation is trending lower (despite its slow progress), and the labour market is trending in the weakening direction. Therefore, 3 rate cuts is our base case, and 4 cuts has an outsider's chance.

For Bitcoin? It's still range-bound between $65,500 and $71,500. We expect $60k to be retested before $74k.

BTC 1D Chart

Cryptonary’s Take

Price has moved closer to the $65,500 support, and our bias remains for the next move to be a retest of $60k, with the possibility of a small deviation below it to the $57k-$58k area.

When we assess the market today, we see a whole host of risks, whether that be US–Iran tensions, tariff uncertainty (Section 122 replacing IEEPA, with Section 301 investigations now incoming), interest rate uncertainty following hot PCE data, or equity indexes having mostly been range-bound at the highs for months now, likely needing a pull back.

We’ve narrowed our high-conviction support zone to $50k-$60k (from $50k-$63k previously), given increased confidence that sub-$60k gets tested. The low-to-mid $50Ks holds a whole host of key on-chain cost basis levels which have historically represented strong long-term support.

The counter-case: a diplomatic resolution with Iran, a dovish surprise from the 12 Fed speeches this week, or a blowout Nvidia print could clear the uncertainty and push BTC toward the top of the range. Until that happens, the bias is lower.Our proprietary risk framework, combining macro liquidity conditions, on-chain cost basis levels, and derivatives positioning, currently points to a risk-off environment. That stance holds until the data shifts.

Key Dates Ahead

• Feb 25: Nvidia Q4 FY26 earnings (after close)
• Feb 26: 12 Fed speeches throughout the week
• Feb 28: Trump’s Iran negotiation window
• Mar 6: US Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment
• Mar 12: CPI
• Mar 18–19: FOMC meeting

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