We knew September could be bearish for crypto, but actually going through the month and seeing all the boredom lurking on the graphs makes things difficult to process.
Would the right play be to accumulate like there’s no tomorrow? Or maybe apply technical analysis to try and spot the bottom like a wizard?
There are a few different ways to go about it, but all should revolve around one thing. 👇
Managing risk. Surely, you may find a promising opportunity for quick gains, but most short-term opportunities will result in losses. After all, you’d be going against the general trend of the market. This week, we dive deeply into how best you can secure your place ahead of the next bull run and survive the remaining bit of this bear market!
TLDR 📃
- September will continue to be bearish for crypto.
- Some assets recently lost support, and some have even entered downside price discovery. We dived into their price action to identify the next key levels.
- This is not the time to be chasing exhilarating highs; it is the time to reposition your portfolio and accumulate your conviction buys.
- We’ve created a simple game plan for repositioning during this time.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the R:R trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice. Any capital-related decision you make is your responsibility and yours only.
Cryptonary’s portfolio 📁
Our portfolio contains BTC, ETH, ARB, DYDX, LDO, SNX, FXS, LBR, THOR & XAUT, but these are two assets you should have your eyes on right now…BTC | Bitcoin
Bitcoin has become more dangerous than before.
Usually, ranging periods such as the one we’re currently in (three weekly Doji candles, back-to-back) end up in an explosive move. Now, given that we’re above support, this provides a certain amount of safety that we’d happily invest on.
But something that can stir up the market is missing - DEMAND.
Since testing $25,150, we’ve barely seen any movement in Bitcoin’s price, which leads us to believe that sellers are about to take over and break that level of support.
With that in mind, we believe now is the time to reposition 👇
Portfolio allocations 🧺
We’ve seen first-hand how altcoin prices can visit rock-bottoms to the slightest drop in Bitcoin’s price. Given the difference in their market caps, Bitcoin remains the market mover, and hence, we should provide a higher allocation to it to avoid losses at this time.To clear up the waters, we’d want to make something crystal 👇 It would be best if you don't sell your existing positions. Long-term portfolios are created for that very reason. The only time you should sell is when the project is either dying, about to die or when you’ve hit your long-term targets and want to reinvest in other assets. Instead, we recommend being conservative with altcoins and returning to them once the market starts to rise.
Trading opportunities 📊
You can always give a small allocation to your trading endeavours. Sometimes, the market offers amazing opportunities which can increase your capital and, as a result, your long-term gains if you decide to reinvest. We recommend having less than 10% allocated to trading opportunities; only with capital you’re fine with losing.ARB | Arbitrum
ARB is now in downside price discovery. What’s the play?
Buying in downside price discovery is always uncertain. There’s no telling where the price is going to bottom since there are no levels to bottom from, which means buying now could end up in a short-term loss.
The only play we have left is to wait for psychological levels to act as support - $0.80, $0.70, $0.60, and so on.
We are not interested in catching the bottom but rather hopping on the train when a bottom is formed. This move completely diminishes our downside risk and allows us to accumulate at lower prices.
Cryptonary’s watchlist 🔎
Our watchlist contains DOT, SYN, OP, LDO, ASTR, RUNE, SOL & MINA. But today, only two assets take the spotlight…DOT | Polkadot
So, our thesis on DOT from last week didn’t play out. What’s next?
DOT’s price closed a weekly candle under $4.225, leading to a lower low - the bearish trend continues.
At some point, you could see its price retesting the $4.35 - $4.225 region as resistance, from where it can continue the bearish trend to $3.60. This is our nearest support level, and it will signal the time to start accumulating.
In the meantime, DOT is now bearish 🐻 and we should either move away or wait for better times to invest.
OP | Optimism
OP remains a solid opportunity as it approaches the $1.25 - $1.15 support region. In the past, we saw a lot of demand in this area, which means we could see some again.
If/When OP reaches this region, we expect its price to start rising toward $1.40 and to $1.557. Note that trading should be done cautiously, as we’ve had plenty of proof showing us how going against the general trend ends up in losses.
SOL | Solana
There is a clear loss of support ($19), which means $15 is next unless we see a reclaim of the previously lost support.
Technical analysis is really that simple.
ASTR | Astar Network
We saw a great reaction from ASTR after testing $0.0550 last week. More upside is expected, with our first target sitting at $0.06328.
With the upcoming Supernova announcement, ASTR might be a lucky exception. The current structure also remains bullish (higher highs and higher lows). With both confluences in mind, we might even have a shot at higher prices, such as $0.075.
RUNE | THORChain (Daily timeframe)
We’ve identified a symmetrical triangle on RUNE’s daily timeframe. There are two things you need to know about this chart now 👇
1️⃣ A symmetrical triangle is a continuation price pattern
This means the trend before the pattern’s creation is also the likely trajectory. By translating this to RUNE’s chart, we’re looking at higher odds for a break to the downside.
2️⃣ Nothing is certain until we have confirmation.
As far as we know, this pattern is just one scenario in hundreds. Only a daily closure under the bottom or upper trend lines will validate this symmetrical triangle.
Plus, THORChain and MetaMask are cooking up an announcement today, which could be a catalyst for a break in either direction. Please join our Discord to stay updated with any RUNE price changes!
Cryptonary’s take 🧠
Most people believe that embracing risk makes a difference between winners and losers. However, we’d argue that knowing how to manage risk is the key to making it in crypto…And now is a perfect time to prove you know it.
Historically, bear markets have extended for ~2 years before a major run to the upside commenced. With over 660 days in this bear market, the time for the bull is approaching, and we have many confluences to support this thesis, too.
In the meantime, we need to make the right decisions by managing our risk, repositioning our assets, and patiently waiting for the proper time to drop the ball and invest heavily - and that time is nearing.
Even better, we have an upcoming piece about earning yield on your stablecoins! If you’re not one to trade, you’re feeling unsafe or overexposed, why not learn how to put your stables to use? Stay tuned for the report on September 14th 🔥
Action points 🎯
- We must survive and preserve as much capital as possible throughout this bear market to prepare for the bull lurking in the shadows.
- Still, we wouldn’t ignore opportunities altogether. A riskier approach, even in bear markets, can be rewarding if you manage your risk properly.
- Altcoins will have to endure during this time. In the meantime, your allocations in the altcoins market should be minimal.
- Got more questions? Hit us up on Discord in the “✍️・traders-pit” channel!
Cryptonary out!
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