Navigating the twists and turns in crypto before the next leg higher

However, we believe that fiscal deficits and massive spend will continue to fuel risk assets and crypto nicely over the coming quarters. Of course, it will be a bumpy road, but we still have conviction in our bull market thesis. 

In addition, we can add the halving, which is due in the next 24 hours. Setup-wise, we're cool here. 

Let's see if the analysis below plays out. The key will be to see if the market as a whole can continue to bounce and, if so, how aggressively. 

Don't yield the advantage.

Come on! Let's gooo!!!!!

TLDR

• Crypto markets face uncertainty around potential rate cuts/hikes, but fiscal deficits and spending are expected to fuel a continued bull run.
• Bitcoin is showing strength, with the yellow buy box filled and price bouncing above key resistance—there is potential to retest $80k.
• Ethereum is lagging as it struggles to break out from the yellow buy box area - we would be concerned if it fails to gain momentum.
• The outlook for Solana is positive for major outperformance—we see a long-term buying opportunity below $140.
• NOS's upside is correlated to SOL's performance - NOS needs SOL above $150 to recover significantly.
• Despite current consolidation, we expect WIF to be this cycle's major meme play. The yellow buy box $2-$2.33 is a good entry point for the next leg higher.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. "One Glance" by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. These are not signals, and they are not financial advice.

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BTC

Open Interest (the amount of leverage) has ticked slightly to $29.88b but remains well below the local high of $36.31b. This is a healthy flush lower to reset the amount of leverage that had built up.

Alongside this, the Funding Rate is at 0.0028%. This is low for a bullish environment, and this number means there is a clear balance in positioning between Longs and Shorts. Again, this is a healthy resetting at what was previously frothy levels.

Technical analysis

The Yellow Buy Box (between $59,200 and $60,700) that we placed weeks ago, which price just missed a month ago, has now been filled, and price has bounced really nicely from that area.

Today's candle could be important. For now, price is showing real strength. It is comfortably above the 50% line of the bull flag and nicely above the horizontal resistance of $63,400. A close above these levels would be great, a real sign of strength.

The major overhead resistance will be at the horizontal level of $68,900 and the underside of the top border of the bull flag. 

A breakout of this level would likely see a retest of the all-time high at $73,500 and potentially a break up to $79k.

The RSI has reset on all major timeframes except the Weekly. Overall, this is okay. More range-bound price action can help reset the Weekly.

Cryptonary's take

BTC and Yellow Buy Boxes usually work, which is an absolute treat, and we've seen that again. 

Layer Buy Orders in the major Yellow Buy Boxes, and most of the time, you'll do well. For now, price has bounced and reclaimed or seemingly reclaimed a key level (it will depend on today's candle close). 

However, we think BTC has shown real strength here, particularly in comparison to the equity markets. We expect another few weeks of range-bound price action in the bull flag, but we expect an upside breakout potentially at some point in May. If we get that (we believe we will), then, we will likely see $80k.

Let's go!!!

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ETH

• ETH's Open Interest has come down significantly. It's still below $10b, having reached a high of $13b just two weeks ago. This is a nice and needed reset.
• The Funding Rate is also between 0.00% and 0.01%, which is good as it shows a lack of bias in the market in terms of positioning between Longs and Shorts—this is healthy.

Technical analysis

• ETH isn't quite getting the momentum that some of the other coins have gotten so far. However, the Yellow Buy Box has held nicely as support.
• We hope to see ETH bounce here, particularly with the positive market mechanics behind it. The testing area would be at $3,240, and then the underside of the bottom border of the bear flag.
• One positive is that ETH's RSI has reset on all major timeframes, potentially giving price the room to move considerably higher.

Cryptonary's take

The rest of the market can drive ETH higher, but ETH is unlikely to be the driver. If ETH cannot break out more substantially from the Yellow Buy Box, this would be a concern for us. For now, we're just watching again with our focus elsewhere in terms of buys in Yellow Buy Boxes.

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SOL

• SOL's Open Interest has dropped from a local high of $2.86b to $1.68b, a substantial decline and a healthy resetting in terms of flushing out all the excess leverage.
• SOL's Funding Rate is negative. This means traders are biased toward Shorting SOL rather than Longing it. If SOL's price continues higher, these Shorts will likely be squeezed out of their positions, potentially pushing the price even higher.

Technical analysis

• SOL completely failed at its Yellow Buy Box, essentially dropping straight through.
• Price has found support at the horizontal level of $131 and is now attempting to bounce, having put in a bull div close to oversold territory on the Daily.
• We would expect the $131 level to hold as current support.
• There is a local horizontal resistance at $151 that SOL can likely retest. A move above this level would be considered more of a breakout for SOL.
• This price pullback from the highs put in just north of $200 has substantially reset the RSI on all major timeframes. This is important if SOL wants to make a larger move up in the near future.

Cryptonary's take

Long-term, we see buying SOL at current prices or from here ($143) down to $131 as good entries. We still see SOL as one of the major outperformers in this bull market, which we believe will last until at least the end of 2024. Buying SOL below $140 is likely a good entry for the long term.

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NOS

• NOS went through a huge downtrend, and price has now broken out of and to the upside of that falling wedge.
• Price is now battling at the horizontal level of $4.00, which is currently a local resistance. A clean break above this level would be bullish for further upside price action.
• Beyond this, the key level for price to get above is $4.95.
• The move down has reset the RSI on all major timeframes, which is a positive to take away.

Cryptonary's take 

NOS will likely be driven by SOL doing well here. 

I notice that ETH hasn't performed/bounced too well; therefore, ETH beta plays have also performed poorly. Meanwhile, SOL has bounced, and SOL ecosystem plays (beta plays) have bounced and performed better. 

If SOL can consolidate above $140 and potentially even get above $150, then NOS has a greater chance of recovering more significantly. The key level for NOS to flip is the $4.95 horizontal resistance. Beyond $4.95, NOS can retest all-time highs. Let's see what we get.

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WIF

• WIF has a complicated setup here in that it has bounced perfectly from its major Yellow Buy Box.
• But, price is now forming a bear flag pattern, although I (Tom) do not think we'll see this play out bearishly, and I think we'll invalidate it. But that is the current formation, so it is worth being aware of this.
• From here, we'd like to see WIF reclaim the upper half of the bear flag and comfortably back above $3.20.
• If price can do this, it can develop a formation that can then break to the upside from there and get back above $3.50, which is needed to see the macro uptrend continue.
• The RSI has been reset for all major and relevant timeframes, except the Weekl. But that's not quite relevant as we've not had enough price action to establish it.

Cryptonary's take 

There is still a strong belief that WIF will be the major meme play for this cycle, and therefore, the Yellow Buy Box between $2.04 and $2.33 was likely a great entry point for the long-term (next 6-12 months). 

Even though it may take some more time, possibly 1-2 months, for WIF to break above its all-time high in price, we think once it does, it can move up more aggressively from there.