TLDR:

• Macro: Markets unfazed by US-Iran tensions; Strait of Hormuz closure seen as unlikely.
• BTC: Possible bounce to $105.5k; buy zone at $91.7k-$98.9k.
• ETH: Rebounded from $2,160; watching $1,850-$2,160 for entries.
• Alts: SOL: Support at $120; upside if $144 reclaimed. AURA: Base forming; bullish if $0.116 breaks. HYPE: Weak; may drop to $28.

Macro context:

Crypto was rocked over the weekend as it was one of the few markets that were open and therefore able to react to the news that the US directly bombed Iran and their nuclear sites. Markets will now watch what Iran's response/retaliation will be here.

Overnight, markets opened and shrugged off the US bombings, so perhaps the only thing that can more majorly shock markets is if the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz. However, we see this as hugely unlikely. Closing the Strait won't negatively impact Israel (it would impact the US due to the increased price of Oil), but it does hugely impact Iran and their economy in a massively negative way, at a time when the risk of civilian uprising in Iran (against the regime) is heightened.

It also negatively impacts other countries needing to export Oil out of the Strait, such as the Saudis. Iran's biggest allies would also be impacted, as they need the Oil that would be travelling out of the Strait. Essentially, we just don't see the Iranians closing the Strait, and therefore, we see the markets taking this into their stride.

BTC:

• BTC's Open Interest has decreased by approximately 10% upon the price move from $110k down to $98k that we've seen over the last few weeks.
• BTC's Funding Rate is now negative, suggesting that there is a bias to Short rather than Long.
• It is possible that we see a small Short-squeeze in the short term here, potentially wiping out Shorts if the price pushes into the $104k level.

BTC's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• BTC broke down from its pennant pattern, breaking below its local horizontal support at $102,500.
• Price moved all the way down to the major horizontal support that we have had outlined for some time, at $98,900, with price now bouncing perfectly from this level.
• Price is now moving into the underside of the local horizontal level of $102,500, potentially now a new resistance.
• $102,500 to $105,500 will now be a relatively strong zone of resistance. If there is a small Short-squeeze, expect the price to move up to $104k-$105k. This would likely flush out late Shorts, before price then rejects again from that level.
• The major horizontal resistance above the $102,500 to $105,500 zone is at $106,500.
• In terms of supports, $98,900 is the major horizontal support, with $95,700 below that, and $91,700 below that. We expect the low to mid-$90k's to be a strong zone of support.
• The RSI has meaningfully reset and is now in the middle territory. For now, no divergences have formed.

• Next Support: $98,900
• Next Resistance: $105,500
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $105,500
• Downside Target: $95,700

Cryptonary's take

Bitcoin has broken down due to war escalations in the Middle East. However, our expectation is that Middle East tensions are likely to be cleared up in the coming weeks, and therefore, we're looking to begin accumulating BTC again on meaningful pullbacks. The zone we're targeting to add to our Bitcoin bags again is between $91,700 and $98,900.

Our expectation is that we may see a small bounce in the immediate term for BTC as Shorts are squeezed out and generally, markets appear to be digesting the conflict calmly. This might push the price up to $104,00 to $105,500. It's then possible BTC rejects from there and retests $98,900 as geopolitical uncertainty remains in the upcoming weeks. Our thesis would be invalidated upon a clean break above $106,500.

What's next 

As shorts pile in and funding flips negative, BTC, ETH, and SOL set up for a violent reversal — or a brutal breakdown. AURA’s base might explode, and HYPE might collapse. This isn't the time to guess. It's time to prepare.

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ETH:

• ETH's Open Interest is down over 30% since the highs we saw on June 11th, when price spiked to just north of $2,800. Of course, this is helped by the fact that ETH's price has fallen substantially. This is a healthy flush lower.
• ETH's Funding Rate is now slightly negative, suggesting there is a bias to be Short. It's possible we see a small short squeeze here, which might help ETH rebound to $2,400.

ETH's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• ETH broke down from its range of $2,420 to $2,720, with price moving below $2,420, and heading straight towards the next major support at $2,160.
• Price has initially found support and bounced from the key horizontal support of $2,160.
• Below $2,160, there are some local supports, but the next major support is a zone between $1,745 and $1,850. This would be almost a 20% move down from the current price of $2,260.
• The main horizontal resistances are now the old levels, so $2,420 and $2,720, with $2,420 being the key level that now needs to be reclaimed.
• The RSI has moved close to oversold territory, and it lies well below its moving average. It's therefore possible that we see a small bounce here that sees the RSI retest the underside of its moving average. That would have potentially retested the $2,400 area.

• Next Support: $2,160
• Next Resistance: $2,420
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $2,720
• Downside Target: $1,850

Cryptonary's take

ETH has broken below its key range (the support being $2,420). However, ETH is somewhat oversold here, and with the Open Interest and Funding Rate where they are, it's possible we see a small bounce for ETH in the short term. Our expectation is that a small bounce likely sees ETH retest the underside of $2,420, which will then be the key testing area for ETH.

As we mentioned in our brief update yesterday, we would be adding ETH at the $2,160 level, which price visited and has since bounced from. We now have initial entries for ETH at $2,160 and up to $2,200. These are now in small profit, although we'll look to add to the position for the long-term, should price revisit the $1,850 to $2,160 zone. That's where we'd look to add more substantial size.

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SOL:

• SOL's Open Interest is also down approximately 30% from its highs of 3 weeks ago.
• The Funding Rate is slightly positive to flat, suggesting that positioning is even.
• This is now a healthy leverage setup for SOL.

SOL's Open Interest (by USD value):

Technical analysis

• SOL briefly held the $144 horizontal support, bouncing from there a few times; however, it couldn't hold.
• We previously identified the two key horizontal supports below $144 as $120 and $135. We suggested that $120 to $135 was a good zone to begin buying SOL for the longer term.
• Price remains in a large downtrending channel. If price moves higher and it can reclaim $144, then a breakout of the main downtrend line is also possible.
• To the upside, $144 is the major horizontal resistance now, with $165 the next level beyond that.
• The RSI is close to oversold territory, with the moving average also higher. It's possible we see a move back to $144 in the immediate term.

• Next Support: $120
• Next Resistance: $144
• Direction: Neutral
• Upside Target: $165
• Downside Target: $120

Cryptonary's take

Our expectation here is that the price can rebound and retest the underside of the key horizontal level of $144. However, it is then possible that price revisits the lows put in overnight. What we'd like to see is a revisit of the lows, potentially new lows (into say $120-$125). That would then likely also put in a bullish divergence (lower low in price, higher low on the oscillator) just above oversold territory. If price sweeps into $120-$125 and a bullish divergence forms, we'll be strong buyers.

We did begin adding to our long-term SOL bags yesterday between the $125 and $130 levels.

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HYPE:

• An interesting chart setup here.
• HYPE pulled back after it broke below the horizontal level of $39.40, having put in back-to-back bearish divergences (higher high in price, lower highs on the oscillator) in overbought territory.
• Price has since pulled back, and it has retested and bounced from the support zone between $30.50 and $33.00. The key horizontal support we previously gave was $32.00.
• Price has also broken below its downtrend line, and although price has bounced from the support zone ($30.50 to $33.00), price is now running into the underside of the uptrend line. A potential resistance.
• Below the support zone of $30.50 to $33.00, the key horizontal support is at $28.00. This is a more attractive level for us to start looking to build a position in HYPE again for the longer term.
• The RSI is in middle territory, and although it is quite a way below its moving average, there is still potential for further downside here, opening the door for a move to $28.00.

• Next Support: $33.00
• Next Resistance: $38.00
• Direction: Neutral/Bearish
• Upside Target: $38.00
• Downside Target: $28.00

Cryptonary's take

HYPE has pulled back substantially from the recent highs; however, the indicators suggest that more downside is possible in the short and medium term. Our expectation is that price might reject between $36.00 and $38.00 and then head back down to retest the Yellow box ($30.50 - $33.00). If price can't hold this level, we expect price to move into the $28.00 support zone, where we'll reassess for potential entries there.

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AURA:

• AURA has pulled back from its highs, and it's now putting in a typical pullback that we have seen time and time again in memes.
• Price has been in a clean downtrend; however, price is now seeming to form a base between $0.085 and $0.116.
• We would be looking for this base to develop more (more time needed), and then for the price to break out of $0.116, which would set up a move back to $0.177.
• The immediate resistance is $0.116, with a local level at $0.104.
• The horizontal supports are at $0.085 and $0.074. This range is likely to be a very strong zone of support, and we don't expect the price to break below these levels.
• The RSI has now also more substantially reset, which is healthy and therefore positive to see.

• Next Support: $0.085
• Next Resistance: $0.116
• Direction: Bullish
• Upside Target: $0.177
• Downside Target: $0.074

Cryptonary's take

In the short term, our expectation is that AURA is beginning to bottom out here as it forms its base-like pattern, to then set up a more meaningful move higher in the coming week/weeks. If price holds $0.074 to $0.085 (we expect it will), then that base will form. The upside target in the immediate term for a breakout of $0.116 (should the base hold and form) is $0.177.

However, the above is our short-term analysis. Our view is that AURA will reprice substantially higher in the coming months, with our longer-term upside being $1.50 to $2.50. Other memes like SPX have reached $1.7b valuations, and with our view being that AURA is a better meme, then we expect there to be significant outperformance in the months ahead for AURA.

We continue to see AURA as one of the few meme assets forming a healthy base, and we remain confident in its potential to lead this next cycle's narrative.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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How to position

Our expectation and plan remain the same as it has been for a while. We're in for a choppy summer with pockets of outperformance. We'll use this period to take advantage of major pullbacks (like we saw yesterday, where we started dipping our toes back in) so that we're well-positioned post-summer.

Post-summer, it's likely we see a new Interest Rate cutting cycle begin, and Crypto is highly likely to perform extremely well in these months and quarters. Q4 2025 through to Q3 2026, we believe, will be a "euphoric bull" for Crypto.

The plan now is to slowly build positions so that we can take advantage of this period ahead of us. Patience in the short-term, but big, big excitement in the medium and longer-term.