Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
Let's first look at some of the key points from the Powell Press Conference - the below is a cleaned up version of my notes:
- Powell distanced himself from the 'dots' (two cuts for 2025), due to uncertainty. This opens the door to more cuts later in the year. This is one of the positive parts.
- Powell suggested that the inflation driven by tariffs (and the expectations of tariffs) might likely be transitory. The market reads this as; "ok, he can cut rates later on, and play down higher inflation as transitory".
- Powell spoke in a calm and reassuring way, although he mentioned a number of times how uncertain the outlook was. So really, it's hard to actually take anything concrete out of this.
- Powell mentioned that the hard data is hanging in there, but that the soft data (consumer surveys etc) has begun to turn.
Our Takeaways:
Ultimately, we don't see this as short-term positive. The FED guided higher their future projections for inflation and the unemployment rate, but they also guided down growth. This is stagflation, which is a poor environment for risk assets. So, the outcome is negative for sure, but Powell gave a reassuring tone (despite mentioning a few times how 'uncertain the outlook is'), and that's seemingly been enough for the market to rally.
It's also possible the market is rallying on Powell saying that some of the upticks in inflation are due to pricing in tariffs, and that this is a 2025 story rather than a 2026 story. This is Powell telling the market that he can look through slightly higher inflation, and if the hard data (growth and jobs) begins deteriorating, then he'll cut rates, and possibly aggressively (3-4 times).
We do see the economic data deteriorating over the coming months. And therefore we do still expect 2-4 cuts to come in 2025, but we think they'll be back end loaded - late Q3, and Q4 2025. With multiple rate cuts coming all at once, this'll likely provoke 'animal spirits' and that'll be the time to get really risk-on again. Today, the markets are getting some relief just simply because they were so oversold, the risk that the dot plot would just show 1 rate cut for 2025 was removed, and Powell also mentioned that inflation from tariffs will likely be transitory ie, he'll cut if the data deteriorates regardless of whether inflation is on the rise or not.
How We're Playing This:
For us, there's actually no change here. We remain structurally bearish over the coming 1-2 months, and therefore, any move higher in prices and we'll look for Shorts. Regardless of how Powell might position it, less growth, and higher inflation is stagflation, which is a poor environment for risk assets. Simple as that.
We'd be looking to Short BTC in our target zone. Between $86,300 and $91,700. Plan remains the same, no change.
BTC 1D Timeframe - Short Setup:
Peace!
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