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Latest Macro Data is OUT
- Personal Income MoM: Forecast 0.4%, Actual -0.4%
- Personal Spending MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual -0.1%
- Core PCE MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual 0.2%
- Core PCE YoY: Forecast 2.6%, Actual 2.7%
- PCE MoM: Forecast 0.1%, Actual 0.1%
- PCE YoY: Forecast 2.2%, Actual 2.3%
This is a mixed print.
The inflation data comes in slightly higher than some forecasts, although it's not alarming/worrisome at all. The consumer has slowed in terms of spending and income. The consumer is slowing. This does suggest that rate cuts will be needed soon, if inflation stays as it has come in, so nothing too elevated. Markets and the FED will need to see more data releases.
What's next
Inflation’s sticking, income’s slipping — rate cuts might hit sooner than most expect. Here is what we expect:
- Short-Term: Markets may need time to digest this data release. Expect markets to remain largely flat following this print.
- Market Reaction Since: A slight downward move, but overall unchanged across the board.
- How to Position: We're now more actively allocating and seeking opportunities across Majors, Memes, and Alts over the next 1-2 months.
BTC:
BTC remains in a downward sloping broadening wedge - a bullish pattern. Accumulate at the lows, for price breakouts at a later date.
BTC/USD chart
Closing thoughts
While the latest macro data is somewhat mixed, the market looks increasingly constructive. You need to be actively allocating to select few assets and have some exposure to the market. The best way to do is to Dollar-Cost Average or accumulate on range lows. If you are already allocated, stay strong as market is about to get interesting.
Peace!
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