Pepe, BNB, DOGE, ADA, XRP at resistance

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

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Pepe:

Market context

• With CPI data coming in softer than expected, markets will likely react positively in the short term, fueling a potential relief bounce across risk assets.
• However, liquidity conditions remain tight, and broader market sentiment is still bearish-we see this as an opportunity to fade the bounce, not chase the upside.
• Given Pepe's role as a blue chip meme coin, we anticipate it will follow the broader market's bounce, but upside will likely be capped at resistance, making this a prime short opportunity.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• Price has traded into our blue box region (0.00000550 - 0.000004), confirming the projected downside.
• RSI is forming a wedge pattern, showing early signs of a bottoming attempt but still trending lower.
• Pepe has retraced 77% from its highs, a common move before potential recoveries, but no strong buyers have stepped in yet.
• Local resistance sits at 0.00000800, which we anticipate will cap any relief move.
• If the price moves into 0.00001000, this aligns with the bearish trendline and offers a high-conviction short setup.
• If the price loses 0.00000630 support, further downside is expected.

• Next Support: $0.00000630
• Next Resistance: $0.00000800
• Direction: Short-term bullish
• Upside Target: $0.00001000
• Downside Target: $0.00000550

Trade Plan: Fading the Bounce

• Short entry: If the price bounces into 0.00001000, we will short aggressively, with stops above 0.00001150 and targets at 0.00000630.
• Secondary short: A rejection from 0.00000800 also presents an opportunity, with a tight stop above 0.00000850.
• If the price grinds lower without a bounce, we stay out.
• If the price breaks below 0.000004, we reassess before entering new positions.

Cryptonary's take

With CPI data potentially providing a temporary risk-on reaction, we expect Pepe to bounce into resistance before rolling over. This bounce is an opportunity to enter shorts, not chase longs. Given its nature, Pepe is unlikely to lead any sustained recovery- our bias remains bearish, and we are looking for fade setups into resistance.

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BNB:

Market context

• The CPI release may spark a short-term relief rally, likely to push BNB higher before resuming its downtrend.
• Liquidity conditions remain restrictive, meaning any bounce should be viewed as a chance to position for shorts, not a trend reversal.
• BNB is likely to follow Bitcoin's movement, and with BTC expected to push higher before rolling over, we expect BNB to retrace into resistance before failing.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• BNB has played out exactly as expected, hitting our $500 target on March 11.
• RSI is nearing oversold territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term bounce.
• The short-term bounce is expected to be between $600 and $650, where we anticipate rejection.
• Key resistance sits at $625-$650, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the $730 high to the $500 low.
• Price is currently rejecting $560, meaning we could see a push higher before a breakdown.

• Next Support: $500
• Next Resistance: $560
• Direction: bullish
• Upside Target: $650
• Downside Target: $440

Trade plan: short setup on the bounce

• Short entry: If BNB bounces into $625 - $650, we will short aggressively, with stops above $675 and targets at $560 and $500.
• Secondary short: A rejection from $600 can also be shorted with a stop at $620.
• If the price fails to rally and breaks $500, this trade idea is invalid-we wait for a new setup.

Cryptonary's take

With CPI data potentially fueling a temporary relief bounce in the coming days, we expect BNB to move higher before rolling over. The best opportunity remains shorting into resistance, not chasing the upside. Liquidity remains tight, and BNB's macrostructure is still bearish, making this bounce an ideal chance to position for shorts into the next leg down.

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Dogecoin:

Market context

• The softer CPI print has the potential to trigger a relief bounce, but meme coins remain among the weakest risk assets. They will likely participate in the bounce but ultimately roll over.
• DOGE is showing early signs of bottoming, but this does not signal a full reversal. Instead, we anticipate a rally into resistance before further downside continuation.
• The broader risk-off sentiment remains intact, meaning any bounces are selling opportunities.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• DOGE has retraced ~70% from cycle highs, printing a new low on March 11.
• RSI is forming a wedge pattern, signalling a potential short-term bounce but still in a downtrend.
• Immediate short-term resistance sits at $0.18 - $0.20-this is the most likely level for rejection.
• A stronger relief rally could extend to $0.24, but momentum is expected to fade before then.
• The downside target remains $0.10 - $0.12, aligning with RSI potentially entering oversold territory.

• Next Support: $0.1200
• Next Resistance: $0.1800
• Direction: bullish
• Upside Target: $0.1200
• Downside Target: $0.200

Trade plan: short setup on resistance

• Short entry: If the price moves into $0.18 - $0.20, we will short aggressively, which stops at $0.22 and targets at $0.14, then $0.10 - $0.12.
• Secondary short: If the price extends to $0.24, this strengthens conviction for an even stronger short setup.
• If $0.14 breaks down, we step back and wait for confirmation before adding further shorts.

Cryptonary's take

DOGE is very similar to PEPE and will likely bounce in the short term, but this is a fading opportunity, not a reversal. The CPI print could create a temporary relief move, but again, liquidity conditions remain weak, meaning DOGE is unlikely to sustain gains. We expect rejection at $0.18 - $0.20, providing a clean, short setup for the next leg down.

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ADA:

Market context

ADA has been in a clear downtrend after failing to sustain its post-Crypto Summit move, confirming our bearish outlook. The initial move higher lacked fundamental backing, and the price has now broken down, moving toward our $0.60 - $0.50 target.

The market remains risk-off, and with liquidity constraints, ADA has struggled to find meaningful bids. However, with the softer-than-expected CPI print, we could see a short-term bounce across the market, including ADA.

While CPI has not yet triggered an immediate reaction, it may act as a temporary relief catalyst in the coming days. If the price moves higher into key resistance, we will look to capitalise on the short side, as broader market conditions still favour the downside over sustained bullish continuation.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• Short Opportunity Zone: Price has now broken below key levels, shifting our focus to the $0.80 - $0.90 region as a potential short re-entry zone. If the price trades back into this area, we will be closely monitoring the price action for signs of exhaustion and confirmation to build short positions.
• Key Resistance: $0.80 - $0.90 now serves as a key resistance level after the breakdown.
• Bearish Structure break: If the price breaks below $0.600, we could move into the wick formed around $0.5150 before breaking down fully to our long-term zone at $0.36.
• RSI & Momentum: The RSI is currently sitting at the midpoint, showing no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. This signals that price action is balanced but fragile, meaning further downside is still very much on the table if ADA rejects from resistance.
• Downside Targets: If the price plays into the developing head and shoulders structure and breaks down from the $0.80 - $0.90 resistance, our next long-term target would be $0.40, aligning with historical liquidity zones and prior market structure.
• Market Conditions & Volatility: With sentiment-driven price action causing erratic movements, ADA remains more attractive for sell-side plays on rejections rather than structured long opportunities at this stage.

• Next Support: $0.600
• Next Resistance: $0.820
• Direction: bullish
• Upside Target: $1.000
• Downside Target: $0.500

Trade plan: potential short re-entry

• If the price pushes into $0.80 - $0.90, we will enter shorts with stops at $0.95 and targets at $0.60, then $0.40.
• If the price fails to rally and breaks $0.60, the next short entry will be a retest of $0.60 as resistance.
• Risk Management: No trade until the price reaches our shorting zone.
• If the price breaks below $0.50 without a bounce, we stay patient and reevaluate.

Cryptonary's take

ADA remains a structurally weak asset, and we continue to favour the short side. The CPI print has not yet triggered a reaction, but it may cause a short-term bounce, which we will look to capitalize on if the price moves into our resistance zone at $0.80 - $0.90. Given the nature of ADA's recent breakdown, any rally is more likely to be an opportunity to position for further downside rather than a trend reversal.

Our expectation is that the price grinds higher in the short term before rolling over into a deeper downside, ultimately targeting $0.40 as a long-term play. We remain patient, allowing the market to set up the optimal short entry rather than chasing price action prematurely.

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XRP:

Market context

XRP failed to sustain momentum following the Crypto Summit, confirming a "sell the news" reaction that led to a sharp rejection from $2.60 and a retrace toward $2.00. The market has lacked strong bullish catalysts, and liquidity conditions remain tight. However, the softer CPI print could likely trigger a short-term relief bounce, as the markets may like this price. While this could lead to a temporary upside across risk assets, XRP remains structurally weak, and any move higher is more likely to provide a shorting opportunity into resistance rather than a true reversal.

Technical analysis & market mechanics

• XRP is trading within a $2.60 - $2.00 range, with multiple taps on both ends showing clear resistance and support.
• $2.00 is the key structural level, having held strong despite multiple wicks into it (Dec 9, Dec 20, Dec 30, Feb 3, Feb 28, March 11). If this level breaks, it opens the door to $1.20 - $1.00.
• $2.60 remains the major resistance, acting as a rejection point post-summit and historically capping price action throughout December. A move into this zone without follow-through signals weakness.
• The funding Rate was negative (0.015) but has now flattened to 0.0002, meaning shorts have unwound into $2.000, and positioning is neutral again.
• Open Interest (OI) has declined heavily from its peak ($4.5B on Jan 18) to $2.9B, showing reduced leverage and lower market engagement. This drop signals a further lack of risk conviction and potential volatility compression before the next move.
• RSI is neutral, meaning there's no immediate overbought or oversold bias-momentum is currently balanced.
• Breakdown Scenario: If $2.00 is lost, XRP could sell off aggressively into $1.20 - $1.00, where prior liquidity exists. This would also be its first major higher timeframe market structure break.
• There is a build-up of short liquidations heading into the $3.00 and $3.30 price regions, so we will be monitoring this closely and seeing how this develops.
• Sentiment: The market has been shaky, and XRP has held up structurally better than many assets, but the declining OI and neutral funding suggest a lack of conviction to push higher.

• Next Support: $2.0000
• Next Resistance: $2.6000
• Direction: bullish
• Upside Target: $3.0000
• Downside Target: $1.2000

Trade plan: scenario-based play

• If the price reaches $2.60 - $3.00, we will enter shorts with stops at $3.30 and targets at $2.00, then $1.20 - $1.00.
• If $2.00 breaks down, we will wait for rejection at $2.00 as new resistance before shorting into $1.20 - $1.00.
• Risk Management: No immediate trade is waiting for the price to reach the setup zones.
• If $2.00 holds, we avoid shorting aggressively as buyers are still defending support.

Cryptonary's take

XRP remains range-bound between $2.60 - $2.00, and our approach here is scenario-based. Given the CPI print, we expect a short-term bounce across the market, which could push XRP into resistance at $2.60 - $3.00.However, this move should not be mistaken for a breakout-the macrostructure remains bearish, liquidity remains constrained, and we anticipate that any push higher will present a strong shorting opportunity rather than a continuation play.

If the price reaches the $2.60 - $3.00 zone, we will look to enter short positions, particularly if funding turns positive and RSI moves into overbought territory. If, instead, $2.00 gives way before any bounce, we shift focus to shorting a potential retest of $2.00 as resistance, targeting $1.20 - $1.00 as the next major downside move.

We will continue monitoring funding, open interest, and sentiment shifts to refine our positioning, but overall, we anticipate XRP will trade higher in the short term before ultimately rolling over into deeper downside.