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Market Direction

PEPE rallies into resistance—relief or reversal?

Published: May 1, 2025
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PEPE may have found its macro bottom, but the current bounce appears short-term. Resistance looms, offering a clean setup to fade strength before potential trend confirmation in future cycles.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.


Technical analysis & market mechanics

  • RSI is currently at 59, trending upward with headroom before reaching overbought - the previous RSI top was on April 23rd, marking a recent local high.
  • Local Resistance at 0.00000920 - capping current price action and forming the top of a tight consolidation range.
  • Previous key resistance at 0.00001000 - 0.00001050 remains valid - historical rejection zone ideal for short positioning if price tags these levels.
  • Local Support at 0.00000867, with 0.00000810 as the next support level - both providing reactive zones for short-term pullbacks.
  • 200 EMA is overhead and unclaimed - PEPE is still trading below it, but price action is beginning to show a bullish tilt, with potential trend reversal.
  • Macro double bottom structure formed - indicates a possible long-term bottom may be in place.
  • Despite this, the current move is classified as a short-term relief rally, and the structure is still vulnerable to short-term weakness
  • RSI has room to rise into the short trigger zone, creating an opportunity to fade strength before trend continuation.
  • The downside target for any rejection is 0.00000800, a structural support with strong historical demand.
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  • Next Support: $ 0.00000867
  • Next Resistance: $0.00000920
  • Direction: Bullish
  • Upside Target: $0.00001050
  • Downside Target: $0.00000800

Cryptonary's take

PEPE may have found its macro bottom, but the current move feels like a relief rally within a broader downtrend. This is an opportunity to fade short-term strength with clear invalidation. We're positioning to build shorts between 0.00001000 - 0.00001050, targeting 0.00000800 on the downside.

This would still leave PEPE in bullish structure, but offer a clean high-RR setup as momentum stretches. If we fill and roll over, we'll take profits at support. If momentum sustains and the trend shifts further bullish, we'll reassess for long exposure in the next major swing cycle. For now, the play is tactical - fade strength, secure downside, and remain flexible for larger trend confirmation.

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