Technical Analysis

Polkadot struggles; Parcl eyes breakout potential

Published: Oct 24, 2024

Polkadot remains stagnant at its cycle lows, but Parcl's recent bullish momentum hints at a turnaround. Dive into the market action to see what's next!

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

DOT:

Market context

Polkadot has traded back into the lows of the previous cycle, which means any buyers that moved the price up during this cycle have essentially left the market. We're now back at base camp, and when compared to other assets in the market-particularly the high-performance alts and memes-Polkadot is relatively dead. In terms of mindshare, volume, and liquidity, none of the strength indicators we look for are present here.

1. Polkadot (DOT) price chart showing historical lows, key support at 3.6, and weak RSI indicating oversold conditions.

Playbook

Polkadot isn't an asset we hold, and it's not part of our CPRO picks. With a return to the lows of $3.6, the same levels seen back in September 2020 and October 2023, this asset is not attractive from an investment standpoint. When compared to other assets in this cycle, Polkadot lacks appeal.

Key levels

$3.6 (Lows from September 2020 and October 2023)

Cryptonary's take

There isn't much of a playbook for Polkadot at this point. We would put our attention elsewhere in the market, as other assets are performing far better. Polkadot simply doesn't offer the strength or potential needed for investment consideration right now.

PARCL:

Market context (Bitcoin & Parcl)

Parcl's inception on April 22nd aligns with a significant downtrend, which mirrors Bitcoin's price action during the same period. When Bitcoin took a 16% hit, Parcl followed suit, suffering from poor market-wide sentiment. While Bitcoin has made some recoveries, Parcl's entry into the market was marred by unfavourable conditions, which didn't allow it to gain much early momentum.

2. Parcl (PRCL) price action on a daily chart highlighting downtrend reversal, key resistance at 0.295, and support at 0.18.

BTC chart

3. Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart depicting price fluctuations, recent market downtrend of 16, and key resistance level recovery attempts.

Parcl price action

Despite the downtrend, we've seen the bulls fighting back in Parcel's price action, particularly after bottoming around $0.12. On September 16th, Parcel rallied over 100%, following the broader shift in market sentiment indicated by the rounded bottom and inverted head and shoulders pattern seen across the total market cap 3.

This was a significant change, especially since the high formed on September 24th broke the swing lower highs from July, signalling a potential sentiment shift.

4. Parcl (PRCL) daily chart illustrating trend shift, higher lows forming, and key resistance level at 0.295 indicating potential breakout.

More recently, the higher swing low around the $0.18 mark suggests that buyers are now willing to pay a higher price for Parcl compared to before. This shift in market behaviour could lead to further upside if the momentum continues.

Playbook

What we're looking for now is a clean break above the $0.43 level. If this happens, it would indicate that more bullish price action is entering the market, confirming the shift in sentiment. We'll be keeping an eye on Bitcoin's movements to see how they influence Parcel's price action in the coming weeks.

Key levels

$0.12 (bottom support)
$0.18 (higher swing low)
$0.43 (key resistance for a potential bullish breakout)

Cryptonary's take

While Parcel's initial price action was heavily influenced by Bitcoin's downturn, recent movements suggest a change in sentiment. The market is showing signs of buyers stepping back in, and a break above $0.43 could solidify this bullish momentum. With the overall market context improving, Parcel may have the potential for further upside.