Market outlook for week ahead – March 23rd, 2025

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What's happened

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.

• Last Week: Bitcoin (BTC) was mostly range bound between $82k and $85k, however, On Wednesday's FED Meeting price spiked up into the $87k's before it reversed the following day. Meanwhile, TradFi Index's (SPX and NDX), put in a small bounce from the lows.
• The FED Meeting: From the SEP and Dot Plot, it was a hawkish meeting, however a more dovishly sounding J Powell helped markets to rally on the idea that a FED Put is there.
• Big Picture: the market is closely watching the Trump administration and any news around tariffs. This is mostly what is driving the uncertainty in markets, and whilst it's likely to continue, markets might struggle for any meaningful upside.

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What's coming next week

• Thursday: GDP Growth Rate - This is expected to come in lighter than last quarter at 2.3%, the prior quarter was 3.1%.
• Friday: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Personal Spending. Core PCE is expected to come in at consensus of 0.3%, whilst Personal Spending is expected to rebound and come in positively. And lastly, Personal Income is expected to come in lower, but still positive.
• Throughout the rest of the week we'll have a number of FED speakers who we expect to mostly just tow the line and follow the same narrative as Powell gave at the Press Conference.

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Levels we're watching

BTC Levels: Locally, the support is at $82k, with $85,500 being the local resistance. If there's a breakout into the $87k's we'll look to add Shorts, although some of our BTC Shorts filled last Wednesday already. We're respecting Short setups for the time being. BTC 1D Timeframe - Short Setup: Short BTC at $87k-89k if it can get there. Above $93k would be invalidation. Continuation of this plan.

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Cryptonary's take

Markets were very oversold in the short-term and hence we've seen the Index's (S&P and Nasdaq) bounce whilst Crypto has also performed relatively ok in the last week. Bitcoin and the majors look to have potentially found a short-term bottom, however due to the macro risks and the high level of uncertainty in the market, we don't expect big upside. For this reason, we remain on the sidelines until the environment is more clear and we therefore have more favourable odds.