Risk assets reject at our resistance level. What’s next for Bitcoin?
Markets are at a critical juncture right now. Stocks and crypto have seesawed back and forth over the past week, unable to break out of their recent trading ranges. Cautious optimism stemming from better-than-expected bank earnings is clashing with mounting recessionary fears.
In this market update, we unpack the key developments from this past week that may determine the path forward.
Let’s dive in!
TLDR
- Weak bond auction signals caution ahead
- Bank earnings provide some optimism
- But the S&P 500 rejected at resistance - will Bitcoin follow?
- Bitcoin is likely to retest the $27,100-300 area before rejection.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. Any capital-related decisions you make are your full responsibility.
Weak bond auction calls for cautious optimism
Thursday’s 30-year Bond auction was weak, to say the least.It was the third consecutive auction that tailed. This means that the government bond issuers had to increase the yield offered on the bonds to entice investors into buying bonds. This is a sign that investors are not attracted to the long end of the curve and are only buying these bonds if they’re sold at a premium.
This is due to a large increase in the supply of government debt (bonds) that will come to market (be sold to the market at auctions) in the coming months. Of course, this means the price of existing U.S. 30-year bonds will likely decrease, pushing those yields higher. Why buy now when you can buy later and achieve a higher yield on a US 30-year Bond? This will likely negatively impact risk assets in the medium and long term, which may negatively impact crypto; hence, we remain cautious for now.
U.S. bank earnings provide a slither of light
On Friday morning, U.S. banks released their quarterly earnings, which were, on the whole, better than the forecasts.This suggested a slightly more positive outlook in the near term, with the consumer still holding up for now. This is despite other indicators suggesting that a recession may occur in the next 6 to 12 months.
Cryptonary’s take
Here’s how to play Bitcoin.
Going into Friday’s close, the S&P traded lower, having rejected from the resistance box we outlined at the beginning of the week. Bitcoin, again, was inversely correlated. Equities have gone higher this week but were rejected at the week's close.
Bitcoin came down during the week but found a slightly more positive close at the end of the week, having bounced off its $26,500 horizontal support.
We believe BTC can retest the $27,100 to $27,300 area in the short term (the next day or so). That area will then be a key testing zone to see if BTC can avoid rejection at that level. But, it is our view that BTC has stronger odds of rejecting at $27,300 than it does of breaking above that level and moving higher.
As always, thanks for reading.
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