Should we ride or die? | Jan 26th
Here's a trick... if you’re prepared for both scenarios, nothing can surprise you. You play with the cards you’re dealt and still try to win. It’s simple, but never easy. You still need to do the work that the majority avoids, but luckily for you, we're already doing that in your place.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
TLDR
- The Total Market Cap is at a major resistance. $1.03T needs to be reclaimed to prevent a pullback.
- Solana is still aiming for $30 in the coming weeks.
- Are we still on for more upside, Cryptonary? Our answer is YES. This rally will see higher prices.
The reason only a small percentage of market participants actually make money, in the end, is that most aren’t prepared for both good and bad scenarios. In theory, making money in crypto is simple… As an investor, you buy low and sell high, right? As a trader, you just have to learn technical analysis and apply those concepts in the market to make money. Sounds simple? It is.
However, most fail because they’re inconsistent and focus on their dreams rather than the actual work behind those dreams - getting out there every single day to master their skills, to do the research, to learn. That’s where most get lost as they only expect one scenario - the one where they constantly win without even knowing how to do so. If you’re prepared for both scenarios, nothing can surprise you. You play with the cards you’re dealt and still try to win. It’s simple, but never easy. You still need to do the work that the majority avoids.
That’s exactly what we try to teach in our analysis reports.
Friends, it’s time to dive into the charts.
Total Market Cap
The Total Market Cap index represents the entire valuation of the cryptocurrency market. We track this index to understand where the market is now and where it will go.
We’ve reached the famous $1T territory on the Total Market Cap chart. This area should be carefully monitored at all times as it is an important psychological and technical area. To be exact, $1.03T is the level we should pay most attention to, because it has acted precisely in the past. We’re all interested in whether or not the rally will continue, the Total Market Cap needs to reclaim $1.03T and flip it into support. Once this happens, we could be looking at a move to $1.35T, the next resistance line for this index. The scenario mentioned above means we could also be seeing BTC and ETH break their next resistance lines, which are $25,150 for BTC and $1740 for ETH. That could open up the road for higher targets which we’ll be going into in this report, so keep reading! Of course, there’s also the possibility of a pullback here, and for good reasons: - Major resistance, both technical and psychological. Sellers could be taking back control. - Low volumes. After all, we are in a bear market, and the higher timeframe market structure (weekly and above) remains bearish. - Common pullback. It could happen purely because we’ve already seen a great performance already. Prices might need to cool off before going higher. It’s all about waiting and seeing which scenario plays out.
Altcoins Market Cap
The Altcoins Market Cap index represents the entire valuation of the altcoins market (all coins other than BTC).
Last week, the Altcoins Market Cap index reclaimed $550B. This week, we’re seeing the index testing this level as support. If successful (meaning we don’t close back under $550B), we could be looking at a move to $645B in the next few weeks.
This will have a positive impact on most altcoins, which is why moving your attention to the Altcoins market might be the best play to capitalise on the rally. After all, that’s exactly what most want in the short term.
When looking at this index, it’s important to realise that the Total Market Cap also has a say in where the Altcoins market goes. A reclaim of $1.03T on the Total Market Cap index could fuel a move to $645B here, whilst a rejection on the first index would lead to a loss of $550B as support.
Tracking both indexes simultaneously gives you much greater odds of predicting where we’re going next.
BTC | Bitcoin
Our predicted trajectory for Bitcoin hasn’t changed - we believe we’ll be seeing $25k soon.
Like we said for the Total Market Cap index, BTC could see a pullback before continuing to the upside.
If you’re thinking of jumping on this now to catch the pump to $25k, don’t. There are far better entry points, such as $21,450 after a potential retest of this level as support, or even a rejection from $25,150 if you are thinking of shorting.
In the coming week(s), we’re either going to shoot straight to $25k, or we will be retesting $21,450 as support. If it holds, then $25k could follow shortly after. If the Total Market Cap index does reclaim $1.03T as support, we could be looking at a higher target than $25k, and that’s $30k.
At the current time, this is just a distant possibility as we still need to reclaim some levels.
ETH | Ethereum
There was some selling pressure for Ether this week, but it looks like buyers have stepped in again and are invalidating some of that pressure. This week’s closure could be the final step in reaching $1740. Another green candle, or even a red candle with a short body would indicate higher prices could follow in the coming week(s). In case of a rejection, or in case Ether doesn’t reach $1740 due to BTC experiencing a pullback, we can assume that ETH and most altcoins will descend a lot more aggressively. This could potentially bring Ether back to $1420 to retest its 2017 all-time high as support. There are low odds of happening at this current time, but it’s definitely possible. In case more upside follows, a reclaim of $1740 will finally open the road to $1900.
SOL | Solana
Despite SOL’s recent fundamental issues, the chart is simple to understand, at least from a technical standpoint. As long as the blue box holds as support ($19 - $22), SOL could reach $30 in the next few weeks. Only a loss of $19 would invalidate the move to $30. However, we see no signs of this happening.
BNB | Binance
There’s something about the last two weekly candlesticks that tell us exactly what we needed to know. BNB’s price action is, at this time, indecisive. Extremely short bodies (wicks) - are signs of indecision caused by an equal battle between buyers and sellers. Neither side is outperforming, and without knowing who is in control, we cannot make an assumption about where the asset is going next. When an asset is hard to read on its own, we follow the price action of Bitcoin to help us understand where it might be going. Since BNB is influenced by BTC’s price action, and we believe $25k will be tested soon, BNB could be going to $335 and above in the coming weeks.
UNI | Uniswap
We’re still above the trend line, so the breakout remains valid, and we should be moving toward $7.77. There is one potential issue on this chart, and that’s the current weekly candle, where it seems sellers might be regaining control. UNI came down to retest the yellow trend line (breakout area) and took it as support, after which buyers stepped in and pushed the price to its current value. It’s an indecisive situation, as we cannot know who is and isn’t in control yet, at least on the weekly timeframe. On the monthly timeframe, a bullish engulfing candlestick is forming as we speak. If UNI doesn’t experience any major selling pressure, we could be looking at a bullish signal on the monthly timeframe. This would be good confirmation that UNI will indeed reach $7.77.
Cryptonary's take
Expecting both good and bad scenarios has incredible benefits, especially in financial markets. Whenever anything significant happens, you’ll already know what your next move will be. If that’s not a powerful mindset, then nothing is. The Total Market Cap could take either of the two directions. But guess what? You already know what to expect for both. That means you’re prepared for anything that could be thrown your way, and you will make the most out of it.
Action Steps
- If the Altcoins Market Cap holds above $550B, we recommend moving your attention to altcoins.
- Once $1.03T is reclaimed on the Total Market Cap index, there’s more money left for you to make in this rally. That’s if the level holds as support, of course.
- Until $1.03T is reclaimed on the Total Market Cap index, a pullback is possible. We’d stay away from larger trades at this time.
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