Will Solana's crucial $79 support level hold, or could we see a drop to the $59-65 buy zone? Is RUNE’s lacklustre bounce signalling an opportunity to start building a position near $2?
Can LINK find support above $13.36, or will prices fall to the $11-12 long-term buy area? And will AVAX reverse course at the $24-26 test or plunge through $22 support?
No one has a crystal ball to chart the path forward, yet the prospects of profits lie within the uncertainty.
Here’s where we think SOL, RUNE, LINK and AVAX may be headed next.
Disclaimer: Not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results. “One Glance” by Cryptonary sometimes uses the RR trading tool to help you quickly understand our analysis. They are not signals, and they are not financial advice.
SOL update
SOL's Open Interest has increased slightly over the past few days but is nowhere near levels that would be considered concerning, particularly while the Funding Rate is flat at just shy of 0.01%.SOL looks healthy from this front for now.
Technical analysis
- It’s a really interesting spot here for SOL.
- Price broke below the local support zone between $85 and $90, which had held several times previously.
- Fortunately, price bounced off the main horizontal support at $79 and has now bounced +10% into the local prior support zone of $85 to $90.
- We can also see that price is currently respecting the red downtrend line and continuing to trend lower.
- This is a crucial area for SOL; price is squeezing into the pinpoint between the horizontal support of $79 and the downtrend line.
Cryptonary's take
Ideally, for SOL here, you want to see it continue to find support and, in the coming days, break out of the downtrend line.A breakout of the downtrend line could see price push higher into the orange box between $105 and $108, although we feel SOL may struggle to get this kind of momentum to take price as high as that.
If price breaks down below the $79 horizontal support, then the yellow box at $59 to $65 would become the target.
If sub $65 is reached, this would most likely be a good time to start DCA'ing. $48 to $65, long-term, you likely can't go wrong.
Regarding the next move, we are siding with price breaking to the upside, but it's difficult to call.
We think the best strategy is to be positioned in SOL and to add if it dips to $59 - $65, but we are not confident enough in more major downside to short SOL at current prices.
If price gets to $105 - $108, that may be a time to consider going Short SOL – we will reassess then.
RUNE update
- Mechanics-wise, RUNE is flat, OI is much lower, and traders are flat in terms of positioning. So, it is all good from this perspective.
- So far, RUNE is struggling to bounce meaningfully from the yellow buy box. But the market as a whole is also struggling.
- The lows of the yellow box need to hold; if not, $3.38 is the next target.
- There is the local downtrend line (red downtrend line) that would be positive for price to break out of. But for now, RUNE seems to lack the strength and doesn't seem too likely to break out soon.
- If price does get above the red downtrend line, the next target would be the converging area of the horizontal resistance and the main red downtrend line - around the $4.78 area.
Cryptonary's take
We may be wrong; light DCA'ing into the yellow box could be a good buy in the long run.However we are usually confident in the yellow boxes, but for RUNE, we are not yet filled with big confidence.
While RUNE holds the yellow box area, it can still go, but if the rest of the market breaks down, RUNE could at least fill the rest before potentially seeing further downside.
We hope to be proved wrong on RUNE, even though we are not currently positioned. We may wait for sub $3.70 to begin taking a position in RUNE for the long run.
And we will layer some really lowball orders, all the way down to the mid $2s, just in case there's a large move down later. We'd want to get our bag filled in the $2s if it eventually got there in the coming months.
LINK update
LINK is clean from a mechanics perspective.Once price couldn't hold above the local prior resistance of $15.33, having failed to flip it into new support, the uptrend would be tested.
Unfortunately, the uptrend was also lost, and price has now moved into the horizontal support zone of $13.36 to $13.88.
Below $13.36, there are not many supports until we get to the yellow box at $11.06 to $11.68.
Cryptonary's take
Again, for now, this is another coin in which we lack confidence in the short term, especially if $13.36 cannot hold as support.We see LINK as a strong winner in the long term; therefore, the yellow box between $11.06 and $11.68 could be a good area for DCA in the long run.
AVAX update
- This is a good example of how local yellow boxes can work for a nice bounce play but usually fail on later attempts when price can revisit that area.
- AVAX is out/beneath its local uptrend line.
- The next target to the downside is the main yellow box between $24.05 and $26.50, assuming price doesn't bounce from here.
- If price does get a bounce, the target will be a breakout of the downtrend line and a move back up to the horizontal resistance at $39.60.
Cryptonary's take
We would exercise patience on this.The lower yellow box between $24.05 and $26.50 could be a strong support area, particularly with the main horizontal support just below it at $22.20.
In the long term, the $22 to $25 area could be a good area to DCA into AVAX.
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